The NFL season has surged past its midway point with the Week 10 slate having arrived. Bye weeks are in full swing with the Cincinnati Bengals, Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, and Tennessee Titans are each waiting at home this week. Still, there is plenty of action set to take place, starting with an overseas matchup in the morning between the Atlanta Falcons and Indianapolis Colts, building up to the Sunday Night Football matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Los Angeles Chargers for a day of wire-to-wire football.
There are still plenty of ways to get involved in the action with DraftKings Sportsbook and DFS contests. As you seek to maximize your DFS lineups, here is a look at a few players in line to outperform their price point to help give you an edge across the Sunday slate. This article presents my top DFS lineup and the logic behind each selection.
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.75M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st]
Quarterback
Baker Mayfield ($6,200)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are facing off with the New England Patriots this week, who are becoming a legitimate threat in the AFC. While he has cooled off slightly from his incredible start to the season, Baker Mayfield has been one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL all season.
Through the opening eight games played, Mayfield has completed 63.9% of his pass attempts for 1,919 passing yards, 13 touchdowns, and just two interceptions, while adding 158 rushing yards. The former first overall pick is averaging 18.3 fantasy points per game based on DraftKings scoring, which ranks 16th among quarterbacks. His 5.1 point performance against the Saints in his previous start has diluted this average, but the Oklahoma product has tallied as many as 29.7 fantasy points in a game this year. Tampa Bay is coming off its bye week, so Mayfield had plenty of time to recharge for this game.
Looking at the matchup, New England ranks seventh in points per game and sixth in points allowed. They are 20th in passing yards allowed, 24th in net yards per pass attempt, and 17th in passing touchdowns conceded. This is especially noteworthy as the Patriots have been excellent at stopping the run, allowing the fewest rushing yards and the second fewest rushing touchdowns on the year. Expect this to be a battle in which Mayfield and the Buccaneers need to put up some notable points on the board to have a chance. Count on the Buccaneers’ star doing everything in his power to give Tampa Bay a chance, and for this to come with a strong fantasy football scoring output.
Other Considerations: Josh Allen ($7,000), Matthew Stafford ($6,500), Jared Goff ($5,900)
Running Back
Jahmyr Gibbs ($8,000)
The Detroit Lions enter this week’s matchup with the second-best scoring offense in the NFL, with weapons all over the field. Jahmyr Gibbs is a huge part of this effort as he continues to play his way into the conversation for the most dynamic running back in the sport. Through the opening eight games, Gibbs has tallied 551 rushing yards, 197 receiving yards, and seven total touchdowns. The Alabama product is averaging 18.6 fantasy points per game, which ranks eighth among running backs.
Detroit will face off with the Washington Commanders this week, whose season continues to spiral. Jayden Daniels’ injury does not help the outlook, and they have had defensive issues all year. Washington ranks 23rd in points allowed and 28th in yards conceded on the year. While David Montgomery remains in the mix for carries, it has become increasingly clear that Gibbs is the top back in Detroit. He is averaging 61.8% of his offensive snaps and has logged more than half of the snaps in every game this season. Expect the Lions to take a convincing lead in this game and be comfortable leaning on the rushing attack to eat up the clock. Gibbs has tallied at least 12 touches in every game. Expect him to convert these opportunities to a strong fantasy output in this favorable matchup.
Rico Dowdle ($6,300)
The Carolina Panthers have been a strange team to evaluate this year, with some significant ups and downs on the season. But Rico Dowdle has impressed in his opportunities with 735 rushing yards, 132 receiving yards, and five touchdowns on the season. His 15.6 fantasy points per game rank 15th among running backs based on DraftKings scoring.
Carolina will face the 1-8 New Orleans Saints this week as Dowdle looks to build off this. New Orleans ranks 24th in opponents’ points allowed and 19th in yards given up. They rank 24th in rushing yards allowed and 19th in rushing touchdowns conceded. Dowdle is the clear top back for the Panthers with his output far exceeding Chuba Hubbard’s 299 yards on the season. The Panthers still hold a 5-4 record on the season, and this is a valuable chance to pick up another victory. Expect a full-scale offensive attack and for Dowdle to see additional responsibility as Carolina looks to eat up clock when they take a lead. The 27-year-old is coming off 130 rushing yards and two touchdowns last week and has exceeded this rushing total twice in the past five weeks. Count on him making the most of the opportunity in this favorable matchup and for his production level to exceed the $6,300 price point.
Other Considerations: Derrick Henry ($6,800), Rachaad White ($6,400), D’Andre Swift ($6,100), Travis Etienne Jr. ($5,700)
Wide Receivers
Emeka Egbuka ($7,000)
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers entered the season with a strong case for the most dynamic wide receiver room in football. But injuries have taken a toll with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Jalen McMillan all sidelined. Luckily, 19th overall pick Emeka Egbuka has proven ready for his role to be scaled up and has made a solid Rookie of the Year campaign. Through his first eight NFL games, he has pulled in 34 receptions for 562 yards and five touchdowns. The Ohio State product’s 16.1 fantasy points per game ranks 13th among wide receivers in DraftKings scoring.
Egbuka will also benefit from facing a Patriots defense that will require a pass-oriented attack for Tampa Bay to produce a win. Pairing him with Baker Mayfield provides the potential for double-dipping on point production, and he is sure to be first in the offensive pecking order. He has been targeted 21 times over the past two weeks alone and has eclipsed 100 yards twice on the season. Egbuka had just 35 receiving yards in the previous game, with his struggles directly tied to Mayfield’s underwhelming passing output. With a bye week to prepare, expect a different story this week and put forth a strong DFS output.
Marvin Harrison Jr. ($5,300)
Expectations were sky-high for Marvin Harrison Jr. when the Cardinals selected him with the fourth overall pick in last year’s NFL Draft. The Ohio State product was only able to pull in 62 of his 116 targets for 885 yards and eight touchdowns in his rookie season. Through the first eight games this year, Harrison has tallied 31 receptions for 492 yards and three scores.
The biggest storyline surrounding the Cardinals has been the change in quarterback outlook. Kyler Murray’s future looks more uncertain than ever, with Jacoby Brissett breathing some life into the offensive attack. He has started the past three weeks and provided a necessary level of competency with 260+ passing yards and two touchdowns in each game.
Harrison Jr. has benefitted from this and is coming off a performance last week in which he was targeted 10 times and tallied 96 receiving yards and a touchdown. Arizona will be facing off against the Seattle Seahawks this week, who enter with the fifth-best scoring offense, and Sam Darnold is playing at a high level. Expect the Cardinals to need to put some points on the board to have a chance, and for Harrison Jr. to be heavily targeted throughout. Seattle ranks 19th in passing yards allowed and 11th in passing touchdowns conceded. Count on a healthy dose of targets being sent his direction and for Harrison Jr. to build off last week’s strong performance.
Jerry Jeudy ($3,900)
It has not exactly been the season that Jerry Jeudy had hoped for in Cleveland. After posting a career-best 1,229 receiving yards last season, Jeudy has taken a notable step back, with quarterback play being a driving force. Through the first eight games, Jeudy has just 22 receptions for 257 yards and has yet to reach the end zone. His 6.0 fantasy points per game based on DraftKings scoring is tied for 82nd among all wide receivers.
However, the Browns will face the Jets this week, who face a similarly concerning quarterback outlook. Jeudy did not register a catch in his previous game and was only targeted twice. But he had at least four targets in every other game this season and as many as 13 in a game this year. You have to take some sort of flyer to fit all the higher-priced players in your lineup, and taking a chance at the Browns’ pass catcher for the $3,900 price point is a worthy swing.
The Jets rank 27th in points allowed and 20th in yards allowed. This is a crapshoot game between two bad teams in which anything can happen. Look for Jeudy to inch closer to last year’s production and for there to be a focused effort in getting him the football after last week’s empty stat sheet. He likely won’t win you the week, but I like Jeudy’s chances of having one of his best performances of the season and putting forth an adequate DFS output.
Other Considerations: Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($8,600), Davante Adams ($7,700), Zay Flowers ($5,900), Deebo Samuel ($5,600)
Tight End
Dalton Kincaid ($4,300)
The Buffalo Bills will take on the Miami Dolphins and continue making their case for why they should be regarded as the top team in football. Josh Allen is producing a legitimate MVP case for the second straight season, with the rest of the team proving capable around him. Dalton Kincaid has been a key part of this effort and tallied 27 receptions for 411 yards and four touchdowns through the first seven games he has been active for. He is coming off a six-reception performance last week for 101 yards and a touchdown. Kincaid also had 108 receiving yards two games prior.
This is a friendly matchup against the Dolphins this week. Miami ranks 24th in points and yards allowed on the season and has been vulnerable against opposing tight ends. So far this season, opposing tight ends are averaging 6.3 receptions and 68.2 yards per game, with six touchdowns allowed to opposing tight ends. In their most recent matchup with the Ravens, Mark Andrews tallied two touchdowns while TE Charlie Kolar reached the end zone as well. Kincaid is more talented than plenty of the tight ends that have already had success. Expect Buffalo to put forth a strong offensive performance and Kincaid to be involved throughout to outperform his $4,300 price point.
Other Considerations: George Kittle ($4,500), Zach Ertz ($4,000), Cade Otton ($3,900)
Flex
Jordan Mason ($6,200)
The Minnesota Vikings hold a 4-4 record on the season and will be facing off with the Baltimore Ravens this week. Jordan Mason has emerged as the top back in their offensive attack, with this especially the case with Aaron Jones’ outlook uncertain due to injury. Mason has rushed the ball 98 times for 419 yards and four touchdowns on the season thus far. His 10.3 fantasy points per game currently ranks 29th among running backs on DraftKings scoring.
While they entered the season with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations, the Ravens have dropped to 3-5 on the season and are facing the pressure sooner than expected. Lamar Jackson’s injuries have been a factor, but Baltimore’s defense has also wildly underperformed. They rank 24th in points allowed, 27th in total yards conceded, 21st in rushing yards given up, and 26th in opponents’ rushing touchdowns.
The jury is still out on how good this Vikings team will be with J.J. McCarthy having some ups and downs. But Mason has logged 13+ carries in five of the eight games this season, and will face a defense he can do some damage against. This is a statement game for both sides, and count on Mason to do his part to give the Vikings a chance at their desired result.
Defense & Special Teams
New York Jets ($2,800)
It has been a nightmare season for the New York Jets, who turned into sellers at the NFL trade deadline. They have been disappointing on both sides of the ball and hold a 1-7 record on the year. Luckily, they will be facing a Cleveland Browns team with similar concerns this season. They hold a 2-6 record on the season and rank 29th in points scored and 31st in yards tallied.
The Browns will continue to roll with Dillon Gabriel at quarterback this week. The Oregon product is posting a 59.9% completion percentage with five touchdowns, two interceptions, and is averaging just 117.0 passing yards per game. New York is averaging just 2.6 fantasy points per game this season, which ranks 31st among NFL teams in DraftKings scoring, but this will be their friendliest matchup to this point. Expect Gabriel to struggle to assert himself offensively, and for neither team to have much success putting points on the board. Staying inexpensive with the defense allows for more of your allotment to be used for the skill positions, and expect the Jets to at least put a passable effort on the field this week. Don’t expect Cleveland to be capable of asserting a level of offense that does notable damage, and one turnover could completely change the outlook in their favor.
Other Considerations: Bills ($3,700), Rams ($3,200), Jaguars ($2,600), Saints ($2,400)
