At 7-1, #15 Louisville has a real shot at its first-ever College Football Playoff appearance. If the Cardinals are going to make a late-season push, they’ll need every win they can get. That means taking care of business this weekend against Cal. The Golden Bears nearly pulled off an upset of #14 Virginia last Saturday. Can they get it done on the road this week?
Below is my prediction and pick for College Football Week 11’s game between the California Golden Bears and the Louisville Cardinals.
Louisville enters this contest as 18.5-point favorites (-108) over Cal, with the over/under set at 49.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Cardinals are favored at – on the moneyline.
Cal vs. Louisville prediction, preview
Unlike some other conference rivals, Louisville’s biggest strength is its defense. Through eight games, the Cardinals are allowing a conference-low 280.5 yards per game. The team has allowed 30+ points only once, an overtime loss to Virginia. Opposing passers have thrown for a paltry 167.9 yards per game. In comparison, Cal is tied for the third-fewest yards per pass attempt this season.
Louisville’s offense hasn’t been quite as impressive. Quarterback Miller Moss is a capable passer, but he’s not one of the nation’s most dangerous. The senior has thrown for 1,929 yards and 11 touchdowns while coughing up six interceptions. A bigger strength for the Cardinals has been on the ground. The team ranks sixth in the ACC with 155.8 rushing yards per game. Lead running back Isaac Brown is pacing the conference with 8.6 yards per carry.
Cal’s run defense has been suspect all season. All five of the Golden Bears’ ACC opponents so far have gained at least 120 rushing yards. That includes Virginia, who churned out 194 rush yards and three touchdowns last week. Brown and fellow running back Kejuan Brown should play a major role in the Cardinals’ offensive game plan.
Louisville has the ability to dominate time of possession. That means Cal will need to take full advantage whenever it does have control of the ball. Running the ball hasn’t worked out; the team is gaining only 2.8 yards per rush. As a result, quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele leads the ACC with 317 pass attempts. However, that’s also led to nine interceptions from the freshman. Limiting turnovers is crucial if the Golden Bears want to stay in this game on Saturday.
Cal vs. Louisville pick, best bet
Judging solely off of records, the one-loss Cardinals hold a major edge over 5-4 Cal. Jeff Brohm’s team is disciplined, experienced, and has more to play for. Still, this matchup might not be a cake walk. The Golden Bears have finished within ten points during each of their last two losses. That includes an overtime loss at Virginia Tech two weeks ago. Even on a cross-country trip, expect the visitors to keep this from becoming a blowout.
