Kicking off at 6:00 p.m. ET across the Week 11 college football slate, the Air Force Falcons will take on the San Jose Spartans.
These two programs have faced off eight times on the football field in their history. Air Force has come out victorious in five of these matchups, although San Jose State won the most recent matchup 17-7 in 2024.
Looking at the odds for this year’s game, San Jose State enters as a 5.5-point favorite and holds -218 odds of on DraftKings Sportsbook of winning outright. Air Force also holds +180 odds of pulling off the outright upset, with the game total set at 66.5
This article provides a preview of both teams and offers a pick for the Week 11 matchup.
Air Force vs. San Jose State prediction, preview
Air Force Falcons
The Falcons enter with a 2-6 record and are 1-4 in conference play. Their pair of victories have come over Bucknell and Wyoming, while they have fallen short to Utah State, Boise State, Hawai’i, Navy, UNLV, and Army. Air Force is 3-5 against the spread on the season.
Liam Szarka runs the Air Force offensive attack at the quarterback position. He has completed 63.6% of his pass attempts for 1,219 yards, eight touchdowns, and five interceptions. Szarka also leads the team in rushing with 158 attempts for 816 yards and 11 scores on the ground. Cade Harris has the next most rushing scores with four on the season, along with his 293 rushing yards. Harris is also the team’s leading wide receiver with 536 receiving yards and two touchdowns through the air. Owen Allen adds 404 rushing yards and three scores, while Dylan Carson and Kade Frew have combined for 482 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Quin Smith, Bruin Fleischmann, and Jonah Dawson have each tallied 200+ receiving yards and eight combined receiving scores.
The Falcons are averaging 33.9 points per game, which ranks 34th among the 136 qualifying D1 teams. They are generating 455.0 total yards of offense, with 270.0 of these coming through the rushing attack. Air Force has had much more trouble defensively, allowing 460.5 average yards of offense and 35.1 points per game, which ranks 129th among FBS teams. They have tallied just 11 sacks and six turnovers on the season.
San Jose State Spartans
San Jose State enters with a 3-5 record on the season and is 2-2 in Mountain West Conference play. Their victories have come against Idaho, New Mexico, and Hawai’i, while they have fallen short at the hands of Central Michigan, Texas, Stanford, Wyoming, and Utah State. They are 4-4 against the spread.
Walker Eget stands in at quarterback and has impressed this year for the Spartans. The senior has completed 59.4% of his pass attempts for 2,607 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, and just three interceptions this year. His 325.9 passing yards per game lead all FBS quarterbacks. The Spartans lean on a pass oriented attack with Eget at the core of this. Danny Scudero’s 1,085 receiving yards lead all FBS programs, and he has 10 touchdowns on the year. Kyri Shoels adds 587 yards and two touchdowns, while Leland Smith has three touchdowns and 499 receiving yards of his own. No running back has more than 300 rushing yards on the season. Lamar Radcliffe has a team-high 295 yards on the ground and one touchdown, while Steve Chavez-Soto has six rushing scores and 251 yards on the ground. Jabari Bates and Floyd Chalk have found the end zone twice each, with 333 combined rushing yards.
The Spartans are currently averaging 26.8 points per game and generating 452.9 total yards of offense. They are giving up 30.4 points per game to opponents, which ranks 109th, and 434.3 total yards of offense. San Jose State has tallied 16 sacks and forced 11 turnovers on the season.
Air Force vs. San Jose State pick, best bet
Neither of these teams will enter the conversations for top teams in college football, nor have they fully lived up to their individual expectations on the season. Both have legitimate defensive concerns with Air Force struggling to get any sort of stop this season. While my leans would be toward San Jose State covering the 5.5-point game and for this matchup to go over the game total, my favorite bet is San Jose State’s team total of over 35.5 points.
San Jose State is coming off a 45-38 victory over Hawai’i last week and should be licking its chops at this matchup. The Spartans have the most dynamic passing attack in the county with 331.5 passing yards per game and averaging 3.5 total touchdowns per game. Walker Eget has thrown for 295+ passing yards in six of the eight games and eclipsed 450 yards through the air twice.
They will now face an Air Force defense that is allowing 35.1 points per game to opponents, which is the eight-worst rate of all FBS programs. They are giving up 281.5 passing yards per game, with Eget being much more capable from some of the quarterback matchups he has faced. Looking at the season overall, the Falcons have allowed over 35.5 points in four of the eight games.
Expect San Jose to lean on their passing attack at a high rate and to have success against this vulnerable Air Force defense. How much the Air Force offense can answer will depend on how competitive the game remains, but look for San Jose State to record over 35.5 points for the second straight week and not have much trouble in generating offensive production throughout.
