After a long stint with Carson Wentz at quarterback, J.J. McCarthy is back under center. The No. 10 pick in the 2024 draft, McCarthy made the third start of his career on Sunday — a crucial division win over the Detroit Lions. His return to the lineup drastically changes the outlook of Minnesota’s skill position players in fantasy football, and I’m here to make the case that Aaron Jones stands to benefit most of all. If you don’t have him on your team, now is the time to trade for him.
Analysis
You might look at the numbers and wonder if the Vikings offense is truly better with McCarthy than it was under Wentz. The sample size is limited, but Wentz’s EPA as a passer is much higher. Wentz’s throwing added 5.25 points to Minnesota’s offense, while McCarthy has cost them 35.31 points. That’s quite the gap.
However, the rushing threat has improved significantly. McCarthy has added 2.6 points on the ground in 99 plays, while Wentz has cost them 3.25 points in 199 plays. McCarthy scrambles more often in general, and that’s a good thing for his running backs. Extra attention that the defense has to pay to keeping the quarterback contained benefits his backfield mates.
Even though Minnesota’s offense remains pedestrian, the volatility goes up with McCarthy under center. That volatility benefits Jones, who gets a fair share of carries in addition to a lot of passing-down work. If McCarthy capitalizes on the big plays, it increases his chances of scoring in the red zone. If he doesn’t, then it means more passing work out of the backfield later in the game. Win-win.
Jordan Mason isn’t going anywhere, and Minnesota will use him to spell Jones. But when the two are in the lineup, Jones is the more productive all-around back.
The verdict
Don’t sell the farm to get Jones. But he can produce RB2 or high-end flex value for the rest of the season, especially with a soft playoff schedule on tap. Float some trade offers out there and see what you can do.
