Friday night at the Liberty Bowl brings a decisive AAC showcase with Memphis ranked 22nd and Tulane chasing a reset. The Tigers are 4–0 at home and riding last year’s 34–24 upset in New Orleans, a result that sharpened this rivalry. The Green Wave arrive 2–2 on the road after a 48–26 loss at UTSA, with November shaping bowl and title hopes. Memphis brings a +9 turnover margin and a 39-game streak of at least 20 points into a charged, familiar setting. Tonight’s winner grabs conference leverage and a crucial tiebreaker in a series that keeps producing November consequence. Below is my prediction for CFB Week 11’s Friday night football game between the Memphis Tigers and the Tulane Green Wave.
Here’s how I’ll play it. I’ll be pumping out these predictions for individual games all season, with plenty of coverage here on DraftKings Network. Follow my handle @dansby_edits for more betting plays.
Memphis vs. Tulane prediction, preview
The Tigers churn 200.6 rushing yards per game and own a ground success profile near 48%, which keeps cadence smooth. Points follow that rhythm: 37.7 per night from an offense generating 6.4 yards per snap. The chain-moving glue appears on late downs, where Memphis converts 43.6% and escapes squeeze points. Red-zone execution then closes the loop with ruthless clarity.
Quarterback Brendon Lewis pilots the whole mechanism with veteran economy. He completes 69.1% with 1,869 yards, 10 touchdowns, and only four interceptions, then adds 557 rushing and eight scores on the ground. He just posted 81.8% against Rice, the picture of controlled aggression. Memphis protects him with an eighth-rank sack-rate shield near 2.8%, so shots stay on time and scrambles arrive by choice, not chaos. That blend of efficiency and legs stresses rulebooks before the snap.
Tulane answers with ballast and patience rather than fireworks. The Green Wave sit at 408.3 yards per game with 25.9 points and a measured 6.1 yards per play. They run on roughly 53% of snaps and try to thaw tempo through possession. Their red-zone offense scores about 85% of trips but turns only half into touchdowns, which invites stalled drives. The third-down picture remains erratic at 38%, and that inconsistency leaks time of possession the minute game state tilts.
The real stress point lives in the Green Wave defense. Tulane allows 402.0 yards per game with 244 through the air and 158 on the ground, and the front grades middling by success and EPA against the run. Opponents convert a heavy dose on third down and score 86.2% in the red zone, a pairing that compounds drive length and finish. Havoc rarely bails them out; run-stuff rate sits in the basement, and the pass rush arrives in flickers rather than waves. That profile meets a Memphis offense built to keep the bow on the field.
Tulane vs. Memphis pick, best bet
Tulane quarterback Jake Retzlaff supplies dual-threat math with 202.8 passing yards per game, 64 rushing per night, and nine rushing touchdowns. A clean Tulane night with field goals exchanged for punts can muffle a favorite’s edge. The Green Wave also protect their passer with only seven sacks allowed, so negative plays may be scarce when they stay on schedule.
I push back because the repeatable edges stack on the home sideline. Memphis’ defense yields only 5.2 yards per play and 19.2 points, then stiffens inside the 20 with a 75% concede rate. The turnover gap screams ballast: +9 with 17 takeaways against only eight giveaways. That swings hidden points and the short fields that decide coin-flip spreads. Discipline amplifies the lean; Memphis sits near 45 penalty yards, while Tulane drifts toward 67.9, which sabotages schedule more than any blitz call.
The third-down geometry breaks the stalemate. Tulane’s offense lives around 38% on money downs, and Memphis’ defense gets off the grass a tick tighter than national average. Flip the field and the Tigers’ offense sustains at 43.6%, which piles extra snaps on a defense already bending by success rate. That asymmetry multiplies over four quarters, especially when crowd noise turns cadence into guesswork.
Red-zone certainty always matters at this number; Memphis has scored on 97.4% of trips and turned 32 of 39 into touchdowns. Tulane’s defense has allowed scores on 86.2% of red-zone possessions and rarely generates a negative play to force three. That conversion delta equals the spread in most scripts, especially with turnover margin tilting black for the home team.
Memphis owns the building at 4-0 and just beat an SEC foe on the season’s resume. The Tigers have scored at least 20 in 39 straight games, so droughts rarely appear. Tulane’s road profile includes a 48-26 loss at UTSA, a window into defensive fragility against true balance. The coaching edge by continuity matters late; Ryan Silverfield’s group plays clean situational downs, while a newer regime still calibrates week-to-week identity.
Lay the points. The hidden yards from penalties and turnovers align with the visible yards from success rate and yards per play. Red-zone truth pushes the edge across the three.
Projected score: Projected score: Memphis 31, Tulane 23.
Best bet: Memphis -3.5 (-110) vs. Tulane
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