Old-school rivals are set to duke it out one more time in Tuscaloosa. #4 Alabama has bounced back following a season-opening loss to Florida State. The Crimson Tide will hope to push their win streak to seven games, led by Heisman candidate Ty Simpson.
Standing in Bama’s way is none other than LSU. During previous years, this would be a pivotal battle for control in the SEC. However, the 5-3 Tigers have stumbled mightily, leading to the midseason firing of head coach Brian Kelly.
Can the visiting Tigers earn a massive road upset this weekend? Below is my prediction and pick for College Football Week 11’s game between LSU and Alabama.
Alabama enters this contest as 10.5-point favorites (-110) over LSU, with the over/under set at 49.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Crimson Tide are favored at -425 on the moneyline.
LSU vs. Alabama prediction, preview
Entering the year, college football pundits expected LSU to wield one of the nation’s best offenses. Unfortunately for the Tigers, they’re averaging the SEC’s fifth-fewest yards per game (355.5). Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has struggled, throwing for 1,806 yards and 12 touchdowns while coughing up five interceptions. On the ground, Louisiana State has gained the second-fewest rushing yards per game in the conference (106.3).
The Tigers have managed to stay competitive thanks to a defense loaded with talent. Their secondary has forced the second-most interceptions (ten) while holding opponents to the SEC’s fifth-fewest passing yards (191.1). However, LSU has coughed up a combined 80 points over its previous two outings. That includes a 49-point debacle at home two weeks ago against #3 Texas A&M.
Simpson and the Tide have far more to play for, with a College Football Playoff berth on the line. Through eight games, the junior has thrown for 2,184 yards, 20 touchdowns and just one interception. Those numbers are made even more impressive by Alabama’s lack of success on the ground. Jam Miller, the team’s leading rusher, has only gained 308 rushing yards.
For all his struggles, Nussmeier remains one of college football’s most talented quarterbacks. However, Saturday night’s matchup doesn’t bode well for the signal caller. The Crimson Tide are only allowing 163.0 passing yards per game to opponents, second-lowest in the SEC. Last year, Nussmeier threw for 239 yards, one touchdown and two picks during a 42-13 blowout vs. Bama. That contest came at home; who knows what might be in store at Bryant-Denny Stadium.
LSU vs. Alabama pick, best bet
Given the way both teams have looked recently, it’s tempting to back the Tide. However, a bye week should allow LSU to reset going into this crucial matchup. Both of these secondaries rank among college football’s best. That might make this a run-first matchup, something neither of these clubs have excelled at this season. Even if the Tide get out to a big lead, it’s difficult to see this becoming a high-scoring affair.
