There are 11 games tipping off across tonight’s NBA Cup matchups in the second week of the in-season style tournament. In one of the headline matchups, tipping off at 7:30 p.m. ET, the Houston Rockets will take on the San Antonio Spurs in a cross-state rivalry matchup.
Both these teams have among the brightest young cores in basketball and are taking a leap into contention this year. They each enter with a 5-2 record on the season, which is tied for the third-best record in the Western Conference. This will mark the first NBA Cup matchup of the season for both sides, who are competing to advance out of West Group C. The Portland Trail Blazers, Denver Nuggets, and Golden State Warriors round out the rest of the five-team group.
Looking at the odds for tonight’s matchup, the Rockets enter as 4.5-point favorites and hold -166 odds on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Spurs hold +140 odds of getting the outright victory with the game total set at 223.5 points.
This article will look at a preview and prediction for the Friday night NBA Cup matchup.
Rockets at Spurs preview, prediction
The Houston Rockets are building on a 52-30 record last season in which was the second-best record in the Western Conference. They then made an all-in push to truly join the list of contending teams by trading for Kevin Durant. Scoring in the half-court in crunch time was a notable issue last season, and Durant remains one of the best scorers the NBA has ever seen- even in the advanced stages of his career. The Rockets opened the season with back-to-back losses at the hands of the Oklahoma City Thunder and Detroit Pistons, but have since ripped off five consecutive wins over the Brooklyn Nets, Toronto Raptors, Boston Celtics, Dallas Mavericks, and Memphis Grizzlies.
Durant has mostly been as-advertised, leading the team with 24.0 points, along with 5.3 rebounds and 2.7 assists. Alperen Sengun has continued on his upward developmental trajectory and has looked the part of an All-Star caliber big man to start the year. The 23-year-old is posting averages of 22.4 points, 9.9 rebounds, and 7.3 assists while posting a career-high three-point volume and connecting at a 42.9% rate. Amen Thompson also continues to develop in his third season and is averaging a career-best 18.6 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 2.7 rebounds per game. Jabari Smith Jr. and Tari Eason are also averaging in double figures, while Reed Sheppard, Steven Adams, and Josh Okogie round out most of their depth. Adams is listed as questionable tonight with a hip injury, while Dorian Finney-Smith will miss with an ankle issue, and Fred VanVleet remains out for the season with his ACL tear.
As a team, the Rockets are leading the NBA in scoring at 124.7 points per game and rank fifth in opponents’ points allowed at 111.7. They are shooting the best three-point percentage as a team at 42.7%, but rank 29th in three-point volume. Houston also ranks first in rebounds tallied and second in opponents’ rebounds allowed, as well as holding opponents to the fourth-worst field goal percentage.
The San Antonio Spurs are looking for a more rapid rise to contention and snap a streak of six consecutive losing seasons. They looked to be trending in the right direction last year and made a trade for De’Aaron Fox to get in the Western Conference mix. But Victor Wembanyama was forced to be shut down for the ’24-’25 season due to a blood clot issue to change this outlook. He is back on the floor this year and has played at an MVP-caliber level to start the season. San Antonio opened the season up with five consecutive victories over the Dallas Mavericks, New Orleans Pelicans, Brooklyn Nets, Toronto Raptors, and Miami Heat, but is coming off back-to-back losses at the hands of the Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers.
Wembanyama is at the heart of everything they do, averaging 25.6 points, 12.9 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and an NBA-leading 4.1 blocks per game. Reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle is averaging 19.4 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 4.7 assists, but has had some turnover issues and is coughing the ball up 5.0 times per game. Jeremy Sochan, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes, and Julian Champagnie round out most of the team’s depth. De’Aaron Fox has yet to suit up this season as he recovers from a hamstring injury sustained in the offseason, but his return is looking more imminent. San Antonio also selected Dylan Harper with the second-overall pick in last year’s draft. The Rutgers product got off to an excellent start to his NBA career, averaging 14.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 3.7 assists across his 23.3 minutes per game in the first six games played. But Harper suffered a left calf strain that will keep him out for the foreseeable future.
The Spurs are averaging 117.9 points per game, which ranks 13th in the NBA. But they are limiting opponents to 109.6 points per game, which is the second-best rate in the league. San Antonio also is allowing the fewest rebounds to opponents, blocking the most shots in the league, and getting to the free-throw line at the third-best rate.
Rockets at Spurs prediction, best bet
Both these teams last played on Wednesday, so there is no rest advantage in either direction. However, these two 5-2 teams are trending in opposite directions, with the Rockets ripping off five consecutive wins while the Spurs are coming off back-to-back losses.
There were concerns coming into the season about San Antonio having too much guard talent and how each key player could thrive in their role simultaneously. But Fox has yet to make his season debut, Harper will be sidelined for multiple weeks, and Castle’s turnover issues are proving to be increasingly problematic. His 5.0 turnovers per game is the most in the entire NBA, and across the first seven games, he has posted turnover totals of: 5, 10, 5, 5, 2, 2, 6.
This will especially be an issue against this high caliber Rockets’ defense. The Spurs’ offense has looked clunky since the Harper injury and these issues will continue until a return to full health. Expect this to be a major fact in this one and for the Rockets to limit any consistent successful offense. These are two of the best defensive and top rebounding teams in the NBA this year.
I am backing the Rockets to win in a bit of a rock-fight, in which Houston covers the 4.5-points spread and the under cashes. The Rockets have won each of their past five games by eight points or more, with four of the five coming by 18 points or greater. In addition, the under has cashed in four of the Spurs’ seven games thus far, and this will be the toughest defense they have faced on the season. Expect their low point total to create the pathway to the under being successful and for the Rockets to cover the 4.5-point spread in the process.
