Southwest Division foes are set to battle tonight at the FedExForum. It’s been a difficult start for both clubs, currently near the bottom of the Western Conference. For Memphis, Ja Morant drama has driven most of the early season headlines. However, this Grizzlies roster isn’t lacking in talent.
As for the visiting Mavericks, injuries have wreaked havoc on this roster. Number one pick Cooper Flagg will need to produce if Dallas has any hope of getting back on track. Which of these squads will earn a much-needed win? Here’s my preview, prediction, and pick for Friday’s Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies matchup.
The Grizzlies are 4.5-point favorites (-108) over the Mavericks on DraftKings Sportsbook. Memphis is favored at -180 on the money line. The total is set at 232.5 points.
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies prediction, preview
As previously mentioned, the Mavericks are depleted at the moment. Anthony Davis (calf) and Dereck Lively II (ankle) are both out. Right now, this team lacks any sort of rim protection. As a result, Dallas is surrendering the most rebounds per game (65.9) and points in the paint (58.0) to opponents. Center Daniel Gafford is the only healthy player above 6’7″.
Without Davis, Flagg has been forced into a difficult spot as Dallas’ number one option. That’s a tall order for any 18-year-old less than one month into his professional career. The results have been mixed so far for the Duke alum. Through eight games, he’s averaging 14.4 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game. However, he’s shooting a lackluster 39% from the field (29% 3PT). It’s not as if the youngster is getting much help. The Mavericks have knocked down 43.9% of their shots this season, tied for the NBA’s fourth-lowest mark.
If there was ever an opportunity for Flagg to break out, it’s tonight. The Grizzlies are allowing 120.8 points per game, third-most in basketball. Granted, former Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr. remains a threat. However, his teammates have done a poor job at defending the perimeter. Opposing squads are hitting 38.3% of their shots from beyond the arc vs. Memphis, sixth-worst in the association.
At this point, Ja Morant’s future in Memphis is murky at best. Once seen as a franchise savior, the guard was suspended earlier this week by his own team. Through eight games this season, he’s posted 20.0 points and 7.3 assists per game. However, he’s only shot 38% from the field and a miserable 14.0% from three-point range. Morant’s -3.6 BPM (box plus/minus) ranks 10th out of 15 Grizzlies players this season.
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies pick, best bet
Dallas enters tonight as the NBA’s lowest-scoring offense (106.3 PPG). However, the team also owns a stellar 111.6 defensive rating, fourth-best in basketball. It’s not as if the Grizzlies have been lighting it up either, as they’ve scored at a below-average rate. Memphis’ off-court issues have only made things more difficult. In this NBA Cup showdown, I’ll back the tougher, more physical Mavericks.
