The Buffalo Bills tight end question was a fascinating one going into the season. Dawson Knox was the established tight end in the room, but Dalton Kincaid had the talent and the draft capital investment on his side. So far, those betting on Kincaid have been rewarded with TE1 production. But can we trust him to keep it up?
Analysis
Buffalo is a team that wants to run, run, run. Having two tight ends plays a considerable role in this, especially when both can block and catch passes reliably. But a true split in responsibilities has formed thus far.
Knox has been on the field for 54% of the offensive snaps this season. Among those snaps, he’s run 122 routes and pulled in nine catches for 118 yards and a score. His primary responsibility is to block, and even when he does run routes, he’s not high in the pecking order for Bills quarterback Josh Allen, with a 6.3% target share.
Kincaid doesn’t block as often, which explains his 43.7% snap share. But despite the lower snap count, Kincaid has 140 routes run on the season. He’s turned that into elite production: so far, he’s seventh among tight ends in receiving yards. For tight ends with at least 20 catches, Kincaid is fifth in catch percentage. Most impressive of all, Kincaid is tops in yards per route run among tight ends with 50 routes run.
It has become clear that Knox isn’t a threat to eat into Kincaid’s receiving production. Knox will continue to work in the flats and block while Kincaid gets the high-value routes. But can we trust him to keep this up all season long?
The verdict
It feels difficult to trust the guy who makes the absolute most out of a limited snap count. There’s always the chance that volume isn’t there and his floor drops out. But such is life for fantasy tight ends; you have to take the bust weeks with the booms.
Look at last week against the Chiefs. Kincaid played only 34.8% of the snaps, and caught all six targets for 101 yards and a score. He can’t be covered when he’s on, even if teams know a route is coming. Continue to trust Kincaid as your TE1 and don’t panic when he has a mediocre week. It means the big production is just around the corner.
