As the college football season rolls on, the stakes only increase with each passing week. On Saturday, the Big 12 takes center stage with the biggest showdown of the year thus far — which may very well decide the conference as well as how many of its teams earn their way into the College Football Playoff. At noon EST, time stands still at Lubbock’s AT&T Jones Stadium as the Texas Tech Red Raiders duel the BYU Cougars in the game of the week.
Let’s dive into the details with a BYU vs. Texas Tech prediction and pick on DraftKings Sportsbook.
BYU vs. Texas Tech prediction, preview
BYU Cougars
The Cougars enter this game at the top of the Big 12 standings without a loss yet this season. At 8-0, they’re one of just a handful of unbeaten teams remaining in the sport and look to defend their place at the top of the conference’s mountain. BYU is quite good on both sides of the ball, averaging 31.6 points and 409.0 yards on offense while giving up just 19.4 points and 356.4 yards to opponents. This program prioritizes the run, ranking top-40 in yardage and YPC. The return of leading rusher LJ Martin 789 YDS, 5 TD, 6.0 YPC), who exited the Cougars’ last game due to injury, certainly improves the outlook against an elite run defense. Bear Bachmeier completes 62.7% of his passes with 1,693 yards and 11 touchdowns to three interceptions on the campaign, while throwing to a pair of talented wideouts in Chase Roberts (32-591-4) and Parker Kingston (34-516-4). BYU’s turnover margin of +1.4 is second-best in the nation thanks to a defense that forces 2.1 takeaways per game, and the program has 12 interceptions with 17 sacks — the seventh-best INT% but 53rd-best SCK%.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Meanwhile, the Red Raiders are 8-1 and sit second in the Big 12, hot on the heels of Saturday’s opponent. The lone loss on the season came to Arizona State with backup quarterback Will Hammond under center, but TTU nearly came back to win that one and has largely dominated opponents otherwise. The Red Raiders average 40.6 points and 467.1 yards per game, second and 12th-best in the nation behind one of the most talented group of weapons in football. Behren Morton once again starts as the signal-caller with a 67.9% completion rate, 1,750 yards, 15 touchdowns and four picks. The team sits top-20 in passing yards per game with Caleb Douglas (41-594-4), Coy Eakin (35-460-4) and Reggie Virgil (37-435-5) as its leading receivers. While the run game is less dominant, Cameron Dickey leads rushers with 746 yards, 10 touchdowns and 5.6 YPC followed by J’Koby Williams’ 525 yards and five scores. The other side of the ball remains just as strong, posting top-10 marks with just 14.0 points and 282.6 yards allowed per contest. The Red Raiders’ run defense is the best in the country with just 77.3 yards allowed per game on the ground, and they’ve generated a total of 28 sacks. Their average of 2.4 takeaways is second overall with a turnover margin of 0.9.
BYU vs. Texas Tech pick, best bet
DraftKings Sportsbook lists Texas Tech as a 11.5-point home favorite on Saturday with -395 odds on the Moneyline. BYU enters as a +310 road underdog on the ML with the game total set at 51.5 combined points.
There’s simply no bigger game on the Saturday schedule than this one. ESPN’s College Gameday comes to town, where TTU students camped in tents outside the stadium nearly all week for wristbands to be a part of the experience. The environment in Lubbock has already been rowdy prior to the game’s opening kickoff, and shades of the Red Raiders’ infamous 2008 upset of the Texas Longhorns are certainly interwoven into the atmosphere this week. In what’s surely the program’s biggest game since then, the fanbase will create a hostile environment for the visitors regardless of whether the Big 12 allows the tortilla toss or not.
BYU boasts one of the nation’s best college football teams on both sides of the ball, but statistically, Texas Tech has the edge here in most categories. What will be particularly interesting to watch is how the Cougars’ run game fares against the top rushing defense — they could possibly create some running lanes, but they’ll have to battle for it in the trenches, especially after the Red Raiders largely shut down a run-heavy Utah offense back at the start of the conference slate. If BYU’s attack can’t get into a rhythm quickly on the road, the defense will have to play the game of their lives to hold this Texas Tech offense in check.
The home team are favorites for a reason in this one, but there’s never been more pressure than now — whoever wins may very well go on to win the conference. If TTU wins, they remain in the running for a title game berth but may drop out of the running with a loss. If BYU comes out on top, they should comfortably make the Big 12 final but suddenly face real danger if they fall. The Red Raiders are favored for a reason, and this is their chance to truly prove they belong among the NCAA’s elite programs. Still, the 11.5-point spread may be a little too wide given the quality of both sides… expect a close one in Lubbock.
