The Broncos are sizable home favorites in a divisional matchup against the Raiders on TNF in Denver. The spot sets up nicely to play on J.K. Dobbins’ rushing props, as I’ve done on a few occasions this season. Dobbins’ prop on DraftKings Sportsbook is set at 68.5 rushing yards, which he has cleared in 6-of-9 games so far this season, while averaging over 77 yards per game on the ground. If we remove a poor 40-yard dud in the international game against the Jets, Dobbins has actually cleared 60 rushing yards in his other eight games this season, so if you build Same Game Parlays, I’d also consider lowering this to 60 as a leg.
If we tweak the numbers to show what Dobbins has done as a runner in games where the Broncos go off as a home favorite, he’s cleared this number three times in four games. Dobbins is averaging 89 rushing yards at home this season, with the only outlier being a 63-yard game back in Week 1 against the Titans. Since then, he’s averaging over 97 rushing yards per game at home, with a low of 81 in Week 7 against the Giants.
While the matchups in all four of those games have been soft, the Raiders have extreme splits defending the run at home versus on the road. On the surface, Las Vegas appears to be a middle of the pack run defense. However, while the Raiders have allowed an average of 75 rushing yards to opponents at home, that number skyrockets north of 130 in road games.
With the rushing yardage prop on Dobbins sitting at 70.5 to 71.5 across the market, DraftKings Sportsbook is offering us a bit of a discount at 68.5. Dobbins has secured the majority of the snaps in the backfield over RJ Harvey, and has nearly three times as many carries on the season. The spot sets up nicely for Dobbins to continue putting up big numbers on the ground as home.
NFL Player Prop: J.K. Dobbins OVER 68.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
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