Week 10 of the NFL season will kick off with a Thursday Night matchup between the Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos. These two AFC West opponents hold vastly different outlooks for the remainder of the year, but there are always some added stakes for these types of rivalries.
The Broncos hold a division lead with a 7-2 record on the year. Bo Nix has had some growing pains in his second season, but the defense has remained dominant, and Sean Payton continues to coach at a high level. The Raiders did not get the boost they hoped for from signing Geno Smith in the offseason, as his turnover issues have resurfaced. The veteran has thrown an NFL-worst 11 interceptions with a 1:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Las Vegas enters Thursday’s contest with a brutal 2-6 record.
Looking at the odds for the Thursday Night Football matchup, the Broncos enter as 9.5-point favorites and hold -500 moneyline odds on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Raiders hold +380 odds of pulling off the outright upset, with the game total set at 42.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action outside of backing a side or total. This article will look at my top three favorite player prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 10 Thursday Night Football matchup.
Raiders at Broncos Best Prop Bets
Geno Smith Over 0.5 Interceptions (-175)
Turnover problems are nothing new to Geno Smith. This is the same guy who threw 21 interceptions in his rookie season and played his way out of being a starting quarterback in the early parts of his career. While he may not have written back after being written off, neither did opposing secondaries in his late-career surge.
This is especially problematic in this matchup with the Broncos’ secondary. Looking at their defense as a whole, they rank fourth in points allowed and third in yards conceded. To this point, the Broncos have just four interceptions on the year, and Patrick Surtain II suffered a pectoral injury that is expected to keep him out several weeks. However, they tallied 12 interceptions as a team last year and had 57 pass deflections. This is also more of a fade of the quarterback outlook.
The Broncos enter this matchup as notable favorites, and the game script suggests Smith will need to air it out plenty. Count on the ball being put in harm’s way at a frequent rate. He has thrown three interceptions in two different games this season and turned the ball over through the air in six of the eight games overall. Expect Denver to be prepared to sit on these high-risk passes and for Smith’s turnover issues to remain at the forefront of the conversation this week.
Courtland Sutton Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-113)
Through the opening nine games, Courtland Sutton has headlined the Broncos’ aerial attack. The former Pro Bowler has 38 receptions for 566 yards and four touchdowns on the season. Troy Franklin is not far behind with 37 receptions for 385 yards and four scores of his own, but Sutton has been the more significant yardage threat. He is coming off a frustrating performance against the Texans last week in which he was held to one reception for 30 yards, which resulted in a touchdown. But Houston has an elite defense that allows the fourth fewest yards to wide receivers, and Sutton’s outlook is much more promising against Las Vegas.
The Raiders rank 23rd in points allowed and 19th in yards given up overall. They are 21st in passing yards conceded and rank 17th in net yards per pass attempt. Las Vegas is giving up the eighth-most receiving yards to wide receivers directly. They allowed 90 receiving yards to Parker Washington last week, as well as 75 receiving yards to Van Jefferson, 74 yards to Terry McLaurin, and 103 yards to Kayshon Boutte already this season, to name a few.
Sutton also shredded this Raiders team for eight catches and 97 yards and two touchdowns when they faced off in the second matchup last year. He has tallied 61+ yards in six of the nine games on the season, including all four games at home, where he has posted receiving totals of 67, 87, 81, and 61. Denver should be in a spot where they can pour on points if they desire, and count on Sutton to be a key part of this effort. Look for the Broncos star to record over 57.5 receiving yards for the seventh time this season, and I wouldn’t argue if you want to make a case for some alternate lines for a healthier payout.
Ashton Jeanty to Record 80+ Rushing & Receiving Yards (-110)
If there’s any reason to keep believing in this Raiders offense, it’s Ashton Jeanty. The sixth overall pick has not fully found his stride, though it’s more of an indictment on the Raiders’ offense than Jeanty, directly. But there have been some encouraging signs in recent weeks, and Las Vegas will be looking to build off this.
So far this year, Jeanty has rushed the ball 124 times for 487 yards and tallied 20 receptions for 133 yards with six total touchdowns. He is averaging 77.5 yards from scrimmage on the season, but 94.6 across his past five games. The rookie is coming off playing a season-high 90.6% of offensive snaps and feels fully incorporated into the offense.
Denver is a strong defensive unit, but Jeanty is the most dangerous weapon the Raiders have. After falling short of 80 yards from scrimmage in each of the first three weeks, the Boise State product has cleared this total in four of his last five. Expect the Las Vegas star to see plenty of carries and be the lifeblood of the Raiders’ offense once again this week. 80+ yards from scrimmage should be the standard for the star running back, and look for him to eclipse this in this divisional rivalry matchup.
