The College Football Playoff committee released their first rankings of the season. Unsurprisingly, Indiana slots in at #2, behind only Ohio State. It’s been a dream season for the undefeated Hoosiers, led by Heisman candidate Fernando Mendoza. At this point, they need to be mentioned among the sport’s true title contenders.
Still, that doesn’t mean IU is immune from a late-season slip-up. Saturday’s matchup has all the makings of a trap game. Penn State has gone through the ringer this year, between head coach firings and devastating injuries. Regardless, the Nittany Lions still possess elite talent on both sides of the ball. Can they deliver a massive upset in Happy Valley?
Below is my prediction and pick for College Football Week 11’s game between the Indiana Hoosiers and the Penn State Nittany Lions.
Indiana enters this contest as 14.5-point favorites (-110) over Penn State, with the over/under set at 48.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Hoosiers are favored at -650 on the moneyline.
Indiana vs. Penn State prediction, preview
Indiana has been dominant, going back to its 63-10 drubbing of Illinois in September. This season, the Hoosiers have outscored their opponents by a whopping 35.6 points per game. In addition, they’ve scored at least 50 points five different times. The leading catalyst has been Mendoza, arguably the best QB in college football. Through nine games, he’s thrown for 2,124 yards and a Big Ten-leading 25 touchdowns while coughing up just four interceptions. He’s been boosted by wide receivers Omar Cooper Jr. (669 receiving yards) and Elijah Sarratt (609).
IU’s offense isn’t just pass-first. Running backs Kaelon Black and Roman Hemby have combined for 1,220 rushing yards and nine touchdowns. On defense, the Hoosiers have held opponents to 248.3 total yards per game, the Big Ten’s fourth-best mark. Leading the charge has been Isaiah Jones. The linebacker currently leads the conference with 11.5 tackles for loss. In fact, Indiana paces the Big Ten in that category with 76.0 TFLs.
It’s difficult not to be bullish on the Hoosiers this season. That’s especially true after their Week 7 victory at Oregon, a 30-20 triumph that put the nation on notice. Penn State has its work cut out, just one week after a difficult 38-14 loss to Ohio State. Quarterback Drew Allar suffered a season-ending broken ankle against Northwestern in October. As a result, the Nittany Lions have struggled mightily to generate offense. In the two games since the injury, PSU has scored 38 total points.
It’s been a struggle thus far for backup-turned-starter Ethan Grunkemeyer. The quarterback has thrown for 343 yards and one touchdowns while tossing three picks. In fairness, most of those numbers came against terrific Iowa and Ohio State defenses. Still, it won’t get much easier vs. Indiana’s secondary. The Hoosiers have snatched 13 interceptions this season, the Big Ten’s second-highest total.
If the Nittany Lions have any shot in this one, they’ll need to control time of possession. That means plenty of touches for Kaytron Allen. In spite of PSU’s offensive struggles, the senior remains one of the nation’s most electrifying running backs. Through eight games, he has 688 rushing yards and ten touchdowns. RB2 Nicholas Singleton has also chipped in with seven scores of his own. Together, the duo will need to produce against a stingy Indiana run defense. This season, the Hoosiers have held opposing teams to just 3.09 yards per carry.
Indiana vs. Penn State pick, best bet
On paper, all signs are pointing towards another Hoosiers beatdown. After all, how can anyone have faith in this depleted PSU offense? With that being said, Indiana has only played three road games; two of those were closely contested affairs. The Nittany Lions, for all their weaknesses, are better than their 3-5 record. If they give Allen plenty of carries, this game should remain close. It may be shocking to some, but I’ll back Penn State to cover on Saturday afternoon.
