Up until last week, to say that the Las Vegas Raiders’ Geno Smith experiment had been a failure so far would have been an understatement. The Raiders acquired Smith during the offseason and signed him to a two-year, $75 million extension for him to be their starting quarterback to pair with tight end Brock Bowers and running back Ashton Jeanty.
To be fair, Smith is coming off of his best game of the season, a 284-yard, four-touchdown affair against the Jacksonville Jaguars. He’ll have a tougher test this week against the AFC West-leading Denver Broncos tonight on Thursday Night Football, which begins at Mile High Stadium at 8:15 p.m. ET.
Las Vegas is a 9.5-point underdog for tonight’s clash at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 42.5. Below, I’ve detailed my favorite prop bets centered around Smith.
Best Geno Smith Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Geno Smith 34+ Passing Attempts (+123)
Smith has hit this number in four of his eight starts this season, including three of the five in which he had Bowers to throw to. The Raiders have scored 20 or more points in two of the four games that he’s attempted that many passes, although another was a lopsided defeat in which several of his passes came after the Indianapolis Colts had already put the game out of reach. This Denver offense isn’t incredibly likely to rack up dozens of points like that Colts team did, but with the 14th-most points per game, they could light up the scoreboard enough to force Smith to keep throwing, especially since Las Vegas isn’t exactly an elite defense.
The Broncos’ dangerous secondary, even without 2024 Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II, doesn’t make it a particularly appealing proposition. This season, Denver has allowed the sixth-fewest passing yards per game on the seventh-fewest yards per attempt and forced the third-worst passer rating. However, opponents have recorded the ninth-most passing attempts, in part because the Broncos’ front seven is arguably even more fearsome. Denver has allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game on the fourth-fewest yards per attempt, making throwing to Bowers and Tre Tucker at least as intriguing an option as handing it off to the struggling Jeanty.
Geno Smith 2+ Interceptions (+197)
The issue with Smith throwing so many passes is that he’s bound to throw some interceptions; in two of the four games in which he’s attempted at least 34 passes, he’s thrown at least two picks. Despite being a relatively accurate quarterback for most of his career — in fact, he led the league in completion percentage in 2022 — he tossed 15 picks last season and is at a league-leading 11 so far in 2025, his worst interception percentage in a full season since his rookie campaign in 2013. His on-target percentage is the seventh-lowest among 35 qualified passers, and he’s produced 11 turnover-worthy plays.
The Broncos have actually only recorded four picks this season, but two of them came against a more accurate passer, Dak Prescott, in their most recent home game in Week 8. Plus, Denver gets pressures at the league’s fourth-highest rate, led by star pass rusher Nik Bonitto, and Smith has produced the most interceptions and among the worst passing grades while under duress, per Pro Football Focus. He’s also been poor when blitzed, and the Broncos bring blitzes at the league’s seventh-highest frequency.
