We’ve got an old school rivalry on the docket for Thursday Night Football in Week 10, as the Raiders will travel to Denver to take on the red-hot Broncos.
If a 9.5-point spread on the DraftKings Sportsbook is to be believed, this matchup isn’t projected to be all that close. However, around these parts, we don’t care about the final score of a TNF game — we care about the first score.
Let’s break down a couple picks for some first touchdown scorer prop bets on the DKSB.
Raiders vs. Broncos First Touchdown Scorer Prop Bets
J.K. Dobbins First Touchdown Scorer (+500)
I know. Way to go out on a limb, right? Despite some pretty solid yardage totals, Dobbins hasn’t actually found the end zone in the Broncos’ past four games, with rookie RJ Harvey (+1000) vulturing a couple scores in the process. Still, don’t get it twisted. Dobbins is clearly Denver’s No. 1 RB by both volume of carries and snap share. He’s also been one of the league’s most used running backs near the goal line, with Dobbins having racked up 18 red zone rushing attempts overall and a whopping 71.4% of the Broncos’ carries inside the opponent’s five-yard line. In fact, Week 9’s low-scoring victory over the Texans was the first contest all season where Dobbins didn’t at least see one red zone touch. Las Vegas is not Houston. The Raiders are allowing the second-most opponent rushing touchdowns per game (1.5) and half of all touchdowns that the team has surrendered in 2025 have been on the ground. Dobbins’ drought ends tonight — and it ends early.
Michael Mayer First Touchdown Scorer (+3000)
It’s a little difficult to not pick Brock Bowers (+1100) in this spot, especially after the phenom returned last week to rack up five red zone targets and three touchdowns. But who knows? Maybe Geno Smith (+5500) will get confused and think Michael Mayer is Bowers. Stranger things have happened. In all seriousness, Mayer is a skilled TE in his own right, owning Notre Dame’s all-time record for receptions (180) and translating that collegiate success into being the 35th pick in 2023 NFL Draft. The Raiders ran a ton of 12 personnel last week against the Jaguars, with Mayer on the field for 82.2% of his team’s offensive snaps, and Bowers clocking in right behind him at 81.3%. That reliance on tight ends should only be amplified now that Jakobi Meyers is out of town. Add in the fact that 78.6% of Las Vegas’ touchdowns have come through the air this season, and there’s no reason not to take a long shot on Mayer — even if it’s just for an anytime score at +500.
