Below you can find all my picks for College Football Week 11 with a quick handicap on the game. The article will be updated throughout the week as bets are added. Our team at DK Network will have breakdowns on nearly every game on the board, so stayed locked in at the website for betting analysis on any college football game you may be interested in.
Texas Tech Halftime/Full Time (-150) 1-unit: I’ve faded BYU in each of their last three games, which has wound up the wrong side. However, BYU has gotten out to slow starts on the road this season, before squeaking out many of these games with some second half heroics. In their last three road games, the Cougars were down 24-10 at Iowa State, trailed at halftime at Arizona and by double digits late in the game, and even fell behind 14-3 at Colorado. BYU has certainly exceeded expectations this season, but it has also been an extremely fortunate team — both can be true. Outside of a road loss to a healthy Arizona State team, Texas Tech has been a machine this season. The Red Raiders are 5-0 ATS at home and 6-0 ATS when laying double digits this season, as is the case in this one. I like Texas Tech to go for the wire-to-wire victory in this one, and would sign off on playing the Red Raiders any way you like. Laying the 10 for the game is in play, as is -6.5 for the first half. I’ll just go to the double result here, which means Tech needs to lead at halftime and win the game to cash this one for us.
West Virginia -6.5 (-108) 1-unit: Utah gave Colorado one of the most one-sided poundings you’ll ever see in a conference game in college football, and it might’ve sent the Buffs into cruise control to finish up the season. The Buffs went on to lose that game in Utah by a score of 53-7, but what was more concerning was how they followed it up — a 52-17 loss as home to Arizona. Will Colorado be able to lock in and compete on the road? That hasn’t been the case this season, as Coach Prime has his team at 0-3 SU/ATS on the road, failing to cover by over 15 points per game. Aside from the Utah debacle, the Buffs also lost by 14 at TCU and 16 at Houston. I’m not a huge West Virginia fan this season, but the Mountaineers did just snap a five-game losing streak with an impressive win at Houston as nearly a two-touchdown underdog. Maybe they can carry some of that momentum back home against a team that’s looked horrible on the road all season, and might’ve finally quit. WVU is favored for the first time since Week 2, and I think it gets the job done.
Iowa +6.5 (-110) 1.5-units: Iowa is a notoriously tough team at home, and has a big opportunity here to prove itself in a showdown with Oregon. The Ducks only loss on the season came at home to Indiana, but given the catastrophe that Penn State’s season has been, Oregon no longer has a real signature win. While Iowa shares a common home loss to Indiana, the Hawkeyes gave the Hoosiers their best test of the season. You could argue Iowa had a good chance to go on and win that game had Mark Gronowski not gotten injured. The Hawkeyes have won five of their last six, with the only loss to Indiana, and are on a 5-1 ATS run, with the only failed cover in a narrow win over Penn State (a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown swung that one). Iowa has the ability to win in the trenches on both sides of the ball in what’s shaping up to be perfect weather for the Hawkeyes to spring the upset. It’s going to be cold, rainy and windy in this game, which should help limit Oregon’s advantage with speed at the skill positions. I think this game should go right down to the wire with Iowa having a chance to win outright.
Clemson ML (-115) 1-unit: It’s hard to say that you can trust Clemson or Florida State this season, but this week, at home, coming off a brutal loss, I do happen to trust Clemson more. The Tigers had an awful call go against them last week and Dabo Swinney let his thoughts be known. I’m usually pretty anti-Dabo, but he had the right to complain this time around. Clemson is just 1-4 at home this season, and has failed to cover its last nine home games, dating back to last season. At some point that streak will end, and I think this is the spot. As bad as it’s been for the Tigers this season, the offense was humming last week, and should be able to put up points on the Seminoles. FSU has only played on the road twice so far this season, losing at a seven-point favorite at Virginia and a 17.5-point favorite at Stanford. FSU snapped its nine-game ACC losing streak last week against Wake Forrest, but I wouldn’t go as far as to say that the Seminoles have figured it out. Give me Clemson at home in what is likely another barn burner.
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