The Sabres host the Blues tonight at the KeyBank Center at 7:00 p.m. ET. On DraftKings Sportsbook, the Sabres are -135 favorites on the Moneyline, and the game’s total is set at O/U 6.5 goals. The starting goaltenders are Joel Hofer and Ukko Pekka-Luukkonen.
Below, I’ll provide a preview, prediction and pick for Thursday’s tilt between the Sabres and Blues.
Buffalo Sabres vs. St. Louis Blues preview
Sabres preview
Buffalo enters Thursday’s tilt having lost four of its last five games. Luckily, all five of those games went to overtime or a shootout, so at least the club was able to secure points. The club is now dealing with some injuries to its forward group, with both Zach Benson and Jason Zucker placed on Injured Reserve, and Jiri Kulich expected to miss tonight’s matchup. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen will draw his third start of the season; he is 1-0-1 with a 3.34 GAA and .877 SV%.
The Sabres rank 21st in goals per 60, 15th in goals against per 60 and 28th in xGoals%. They’re a very average team that will be down two of its top-7 point-getters so far this season. While the club boasts the best PK% in the league, it has taken the ninth-most penalties per 60. Buffalo ranks 20th in PP% despite drawing the 10th-most penalties per 60, and it allows more high-danger chances than it creates. As a Sabres fan, it looks bleak, but at least they play better at home.
Blues preview
It doesn’t look much better for the Blues, with the club losing eight of its last nine games. During this skid, the Blues have allowed 4.6 goals per game, and will look to Joel Hofer to right the ship, but there’s one small problem: he’s been very bad. Hofer is 1-3-0 with a league-leading 5.02 GAA and .836 SV%. Out of 71 eligible goaltenders, Hofer ranks 67th in goals saved above expected. But can you blame the Blues for starting him when Jordan Binnington played against the Capitals last night, and ranks 68th in that same category?
St. Louis is similar to Buffalo on the offensive side of things, ranking 24th in goals per 60, 21st xGoals% and dead last in actual Goal%, except its goaltending has been much worse. Despite ranking 19th in xGoals against per 60, the Blues rank first in actual goals against per 60 by a wide margin. There are some positives to look at: the club ranks ninth in PP% and has been a solid 5v5 team, ranking 11th in 5v5 xGoals% and first in 5v5 high-danger chances. We’re one month into the season, too, so fatigue could begin to play a factor, and the Blues played in D.C. last night.
Sabres vs. Blues pick, best bet
Given the Sabres’ nature to make games as stressful and down-to-the-wire as possible, I will not be backing them anytime soon. And I’m certainly not backing the Blues, who are starting a goaltender who has a 5.02 GAA across four starts. Both of these teams have poor goaltending but solid offensive pieces to create high-quality chances. On DraftKings Sportsbook, 73% of the handle and 44% of the bets have been placed on the over, which is set at 6.5 goals and +100. The over has hit in five of the past six Sabres’ games and in six of the last eight Blues’ games.
