It is a relatively quiet night in college basketball. There are just 13 games of action on the CBB slate with most holding double-digit spreads and blowout expected across the board. The most tightly contested game is expected to be between the North Dakota State Bison and UC Davis Aggies, tipping off at 9:00 p.m. ET.
Looking at the odds for the matchup, UC Davis enters as 2.5-point favorites and holds -135 odds on the Moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. North Dakota State holds +114 odds of pulling off the outright upset with the game total set at 143.5.
North Dakota State vs. UC Davis prediction, preview
Both these teams enter with just one game played thus far and still plenty unproven. North Dakota State fell 67-65 at the hands of Oregon State on a layup with two seconds remaining in their season opener. Andy Stefonowicz had a three-point attempt at the buzzer for the win but it fell short to start the season off on the wrong foot.
North Dakota State really struggled to shoot the ball in the season opener, connecting on just 39.4% of their attempts from the field and 19.4% of shots from beyond the three-point arc. The Bison also shot just 63.6% at the free-throw line. They are coming off a 21-11 season last year in the Summit Conference although only 20.1% of the minutes played and 14.2% of the scoring production from the roster have returned. Markhi Strickland, Trecian Carson, Noah Feddersen, Damari Wheeler-Thomas, and Tay Smith rounded out the starting five in the season opener. Andy Stefonowicz also added 30 minutes off the bench.
UC Davis got off to a better start to the season, defeating D11 Menlo 96-69. There is not a ton to take away given the level of competition, but they showed some flashes of the way they want to play and finished strong. The Aggies are coming off a 15-17 season last year and went 9-11 in Big West conference play. 47.1% of their roster from last year returns, including 35.9% of the scoring production.
They greatly struggled to score the ball last year, averaging just 68.0 points per game which ranked 318th out of the 364 qualifying D1 programs. The Aggies also lost last year’s leading scorer, Ty Johnson, who pitched in 21.1 points per game. UC Davis rolled out a starting lineup of Omer Suljanovic, Niko Rock, Marcus Wilson, Nils Cooper, and Connor Sevilla in the season opener.
North Dakota vs. UC Davis pick, best bet
It is tough to fully evaluate what to make of UC Davis in the opening game given the DII opponent, but it was concerning to me the Aggies did not fully bury Menlo. The undermanned opponents trailed by just eight at halftime and cut the lead to the same margin with just over 13 minutes left to play. UC Davis was able to pull away late in the game, but Menlo still shot 40.0% from beyond the three-point line and if they did not have 28 turnovers would have had a chance to be in it at the end.
I think oddsmakers got this one wrong and am backing North Dakota State to win outright on the moneyline. They are 3-1 in their last four meetings against UC Davis. The Bison also have won 16 of their last 17 Wednesday games played at UC Davis stadium, University Credit Union Center.
There has been more turnover on the North Dakota State roster, but there is a clear concept for who they want to be as a team. UC Davis greatly struggled to score last year and lost their lone reliable source of offense. Being held to 42 points at halftime against a DII opponent is not convincing enough for me to put these concerns to the side.
Expect this matchup to serve as a bit of a wake-up call to the Aggies as they prepare to face true high level competition. If they open the game with the same lack of purpose, North Dakota State is capable of burying them. Count on them pushing the scoring level to a point that UC Davis cannot match and for this to be the story of this matchup. Capitalize on the +114 odds on the moneyline and look for the Bison to pick up their first win of the season.
