The Celtics are hosting the Wizards on Wednesday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Boston is favored by 12.5 points and this game carries a total of 232.5 points.
Below, I break down this matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Celtics vs. Wizards preview, prediction
With Jayson Tatum (Achilles) sidelined, the Celtics have been a rollercoaster so far this season. Boston lost its first three games, then won three in a row and now, the Celtics have lost two straight entering tonight. Boston is coming off a frustrating 105-103 home loss to the Jazz on Monday, in which the Celtics led by as many 14 points.
Boston’s main issue this season has been its rebounding and that glaring weakness was on full display in the loss, with Utah out-rebounding the Celtics 55-36. With Al Horford, Kristaps Porzingis and Luke Kornet all gone from this team, Boston ranks 26th in rebound rate this season. Neemias Queta has been solid as the Celtics’ starting center this season, but he and the team as a whole must improve their work on the glass if Boston wants to be a playoff team come spring time.
With Tatum missing, Jaylen Brown has been putting up superstar-like numbers as the Celtics’ alpha, averaging a career-high 26.8 PPG. While Brown has done his job in elevating his game in Tatum’s absence, Payton Pritchard and Derrick White have had growing pains in their new roles, averaging 15.0 and 14.4 PPG, respectively. Both these great shooters have struggled mightily with their outside shots, shooting under 30% from distance and as a result, Boston ranks second-to-last in three-point percentage (31.2%). White and Pritchard are both due for some positive regression as shooters and this matchup with the Wizards is a great spot for them to get back on track, with this 1-7 Washington team ranking 28th in defensive rating.
Once again, the Wizards have one of the weakest rosters in the NBA this season and they are led by second-year players Kyshawn George and Alex Sarr, who are both averaging right around 17 PPG. Veterans CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton have played secondary roles for Washington as this team looks to develop its younger players, and with this plan, the Wizards simply aren’t going to win many games, but this is by design, as the team certainly wants to be in the draft lottery again. Washington is one of only two teams to rank bottom-five in both offensive and defensive rating this season, resulting in it ranking 28th in net rating, whereas the Celtics rank 15th.
Celtics vs. Wizards pick, best bet
The Celtics have been inconsistent this season, but they are still the far superior team over the already tanking Wizards and after dropping two games in a row, Boston should bounce back with a win tonight on its home floor. Covering this 12.5-point spread, however, is more of a difficult task, as the Celtics are just 2-6 ATS this season.
Rather than betting the spread for this game, backing Washington for under its team total of 109.5 points is a solid wager for this contest. The Wizards haven’t scored more than 108 points in three straight games and they rank second-to-last in offensive rating this season. On the other side, the Celtics rank 13th in defensive rating and dead last in pace this season, resulting in them giving up just 109.6 PPG, which is the third-best in the league. Coming off of back-to-back losses, Boston should be locked in on the defensive end and Washington should struggle to have a decent offensive showing.
