The 2014-15 Golden State Warriors won 67 games, went on to win the NBA championship, and broke the single-season regular season wins record the following season with 73. The 2024-25 Oklahoma City Thunder won 68 games, went on to win the NBA championship, and have gone 7-0 to begin the 2025-26 campaign despite missing Jalen Williams for every game and Chet Holmgren for each of the last three. Do the Thunder have a chance of winning 74?
Oklahoma City has a chance to improve to 8-0 tonight with a road matchup against the LA Clippers, who suffered a nail-biting defeat last night to the Miami Heat. Holmgren is off the injury report and is set to make his return, while LA hasn’t released an injury report yet. The game will tip off at 11 p.m. ET at Intuit Dome in Los Angeles.
The Thunder are 7.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-298 on the Moneyline), with the point total set at 221.5. The Clippers are +240 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll lay out my three favorite prop bets from tonight’s marquee clash.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 35+ Points (+139)
On Netflix’s Starting 5, Gilgeous-Alexander indicated that it was “a bad game” when he merely scored 30 points. So far this season, that’s been the case once again; the 2024-25 MVP has scored 30 or more in six of Oklahoma City’s seven games, including 55 in the NBA Finals rematch against the Indiana Pacers, and his 33.6 points per game trail only Luka Dončić, Giannis Antetokoumpo, and Tyrese Maxey. Though 35 is a different bar — one that he actually hasn’t cleared in a regulation game this season — it’s not hard to imagine him getting there, given that he scored 35 or more 26 different times last season. He’ll carry an even greater share of the shot-creating burden if backup Ajay Mitchell, who’s questionable with a glute injury, can’t play or is otherwise limited.
Though LA finished with the third-best defensive rating in 2024-25 and added a few defensive-oriented pieces in the offseason by dealing Norman Powell for John Collins and signing Brook Lopez to relieve Ivica Zubac, the pieces haven’t all come together in 2025-26 yet. The Clippers are still establishing chemistry on that side of the ball and rank just 20th in defensive rating so far. LA also turns it over at the highest rate in the league, and Gilgeous-Alexander ranks third in points off of turnovers this season after finishing second in that category in 2024-25. Plus, there’s no guarantee that Kawhi Leonard will play in the second night of the back-to-back, and he’s historically been among Gilgeous-Alexander’s most effective defenders.
James Harden O34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-123)
This also hinges somewhat on Leonard’s status, since Fun Guy has been the team’s best player this season and would take shots away from Harden, especially since Williams — an All-Defensive Second Teamer last season — is absent. However, both Harden and Leonard had at least 35 PRA against the Heat, and he’s historically seen little drop-off on the second night of a back-to-back, averaging 35.2 PRA per game in 216 such games in his career. Especially with Holmgren’s dominance making Zubac a comparatively unappealing option, Harden should be able to eat with or without Leonard on the floor.
Oklahoma City won’t make it easy, as its 104.2 defensive rating is four points per 100 possessions better than the second-place San Antonio Spurs’, and it should only be better tonight now that Holmgren is back after a three-game absence. However, Luguentz Dort, who gave him fits all of last season, is questionable with an illness and might not be able to play his usually physical defense if he does suit up. Harden should also be able to take advantage of the Thunder’s struggles on the boards; they allowed the 11th-most rebounds per game last season and are seventh-to-last in that category so far in 2025-26. Oklahoma City also fouls a lot, and Harden is a 90.6% free throw shooter.
Alex Caruso 2+ Steals (-106)
Turnovers have continued to be the Clippers’ kryptonite this season, and they almost certainly would have beaten Miami last night if they hadn’t lost the turnover battle by four. Harden has given the ball away four or more times in four of his six games, including seven against the Heat. Bradley Beal has had the second-highest turnover rate of his career and Chris Paul the highest. With a trio of guards struggling with ball security this season — who are all adapting to a system in which the team is averaging nearly 17 more passes per game relative to last season — playing the swarming Thunder could be a huge challenge.
Enter Caruso, the two-time former All-Defensive honoree whose 4.7% steal percentage is the highest in his career and more than one and a half times what he posted in 2023-24, the most recent season in which he led the league in steal percentage. He’s recorded two or more swipes in three of his four games, and in the only one in which he didn’t, he played just 12 minutes in a lopsided victory over the winless New Orleans Pelicans. Caruso had two or more steals in two of his three games against LA last season.
