The Golden State Warriors had been off to among the hottest starts of any team through the first week-plus of the season, sitting at 4-1 headed into a pair of eminently winnable road games against the Milwaukee Bucks without Giannis Antetokounmpo and the struggling Indiana Pacers, who were winless at the time. But basketball is a weird sport, and the Warriors lost both.
In theory, tonight’s 10 p.m. ET home game against the Phoenix Suns offers a perfect opportunity for Golden State to bounce back, given that the Suns are 3-4. However, the Warriors might be without star forward Jimmy Butler ($7,600) after he was added to the injury report earlier today with lower back soreness. Golden State will also play the Sacramento Kings tomorrow night, so it wouldn’t be a massive surprise to see Butler rest tonight, given his age and injury history.
If he doesn’t suit up, it’d be a huge blow; last season, the Warriors went 23-7 in the regular season games in which he suited up and 25-27 in the games he missed (all but one of which came prior to the trade deadline, when he was still a member of the Miami Heat). They were 7.5 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court than off last season and 15.5 points per 100 possessions better so far this season despite seemingly improved depth on the wing, thanks to Jonathan Kuminga ($6,400)‘s expanded role and improved shooting. I’d expect Moses Moody ($3,800) to slide into the starting lineup in Butler’s absence, and Kuminga would command more shots as well.
Either way, Golden State should be in good position against a Phoenix team that has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing small forwards this season, and Butler would be a must-start if he suits up. The Suns’ best perimeter stopper, Dillon Brooks ($5,500), has missed each of the last four games with a core injury and won’t play tonight, either. Without Brooks, Phoenix has allowed the 14th-most points, fourth-most rebounds, 10th-most steals, and sixth-most wide-open three-point attempts. Moody converted 45.6% of his wide-open triples last season, so he’d be in a great position to take advantage of Butler’s potential absence.
Even with Butler questionable, the Warriors are 9.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-375 on the Moneyline), with the point total set to 232.5. The Suns are +295 on the Moneyline.
