The Cowboys host the Cardinals on MNF to close out NFL Week 9. Anytime Dallas takes the field this season, it’s represented a pretty good opportunity to wager on points being scored. The Cowboys are 6-2 to the over this season, with both unders coming on the road and outside. The total for games played in Dallas this season is 3-0, with an average combined score of over 74 points.
The Cowboys have been your ideal over team as a bettor, with the league’s second-best offense (30.8 PPG – behind only Colts) and second-worst defense (31.3 PPG allowed – behind only Bengals). Those numbers obviously take a large leap at AT&T Stadium, where the Cowboys average 41.3 points per game, and surrender 33 per game. So the question becomes, can the Cardinals do their part to get this game over the highest total of NFL Week 9?
The total actually moved down from 54.5 to 53.5 when we received word that Kyler Murray was ruled out for Arizona, but I actually think Jacoby Brissett is the quarterback we should prefer in this game. The Cardinals are off the bye, and while the assumption was that Murray would be ready to go, Arizona is sticking with Brissett, who has put together a pair of solid starts.
Despite the Cardinals losing both games, they’ve put up points and hung tough with two of the better teams in the NFL when Brissett starts. Each of Brissett’s starts have seen 50-plus points, with the two losses being final scores of 31-27 at Indianapolis and 27-23 vs. Green Bay. Both games have come indoors, but that will also be the case here on MNF. Brissett put up an average of just shy of 300 passing yards and a pair of passing touchdowns in each game.
I feel Brissett is actually the better option to help Arizona hang points on the board right now, and playing on the road against this Dallas defense represents by far the best matchup Brissett has seen this season. While the Cardinals are decent on defense, they haven’t faced many explosive offenses this season. Indy and Green Bay are the two best, and Arizona gave up an average of 29 points to those opponents.
As has been the case all season in Dallas, I’m expecting both offenses to thrive when they meet on MNF. I’ll play the over on the total at anything below 54.
NFL Pick: ARI/DAL OVER 53.5 (-110)
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