College basketball officially gets underway on Monday, and the main event is a double-header in Las Vegas. Florida and Arizona get things going at T-Mobile Arena in the early game, and then Villanova and BYU tipoff for the nightcap.
Here’s a college basketball pick for Monday’s game between Villanova and BYU.
Villanova vs. BYU (9:30 p.m. ET)
The spotlight in this one will be on AJ Dybantsa, and rightfully so. The freshman reportedly has been fantastic in BYU’s scrimmages, including 30 points against Nebraska. While Dybantsa should be a tremendous college basketball player, and grades as an elite NBA prospect, the Cougars are far deeper than just their freshman star.
Much like last season’s team, BYU is going to be able to play at least a 10-man rotation if Kevin Young chooses to. The Cougars return four significant contributors from last season, including Richie Saunders — who averaged 16.5 points on over 43% shooting from downtown in 2024-25. BYU also brings in a strong transfer class, featuring four rotational players that played key roles at their schools last season.
The transfers are highlighted by Robert Wright, who developed into a star point guard at Baylor after the Bears suffered some backcourt injuries. Wright averaged 11.5 points per game as a freshman, but showed true superstar potential when he was handed the keys to the offense. Wright is expected to develop into one of the top points guards in the country as a sophomore.
BYU opened up a 7.5-point favorite in this one over Villanova, and we’ve seen the spread tick up a point. The moneyline movement tells us even more about this matchup, as DraftKings Sportsbook opened BYU just -285 to win the game. That’s now up to -410 on game day.
While BYU is a team I’m interested in backing this season, and I’m sure there’s some public money coming in with the Dybantsa hype, Villanova also seems like a fade. The program has been trending downward since Jay Wright left, and now Kevin Willard comes over from Maryland to try and fix it. Maybe he’ll be able to, but the pieces don’t appear to be in place to do so in Year One.
Usually in these situations, there’s a combination of good returning talent on the team the coach is moving to, and that coach brings talent from his old roster with him. Somehow, this situation seems like neither. Willard brings a couple of unproven rotational pieces with him, and the Wildcats best returning piece is Tyler Perkins — a guard that transferred from Penn last season and averaged 6.3 points for ‘Nova.
The notable transfers for Willard are Devin Askew (a Kentucky commit who is now on his fourth school in six years after playing for Long Beach State last season) and Zion Stanford (who averaged 13 points last season across town at Temple). Duke Brennan and Bryce Lindsay are also expected to be contributors, but this is a big step up in competition for all of Villanova’s key pieces.
I think the gap in talent and depth on these rosters is significant, and we could see the Cougars run away in a blowout. Interestingly enough, KenPom made this game just five points, but the market and the move in BYU’s favor indicate that number being short. I agree with the move, and think BYU is the only side to look at here as a big favorite.
