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2026 NBA Draft projections: Odds and predictions for first overall pick as of NCAAM opening night

2026 NBA Draft projections: Odds and predictions for first overall pick as of NCAAM opening night

Updated:

By: Sean Barnard

College basketball is back in action with teams around the country getting their seasons underway. This brings on the attention of college basketball fans, NBA scouts, and draft sickos alike, with this year’s draft class already shaping up to be among the most intriguing in recent memory. Unlike last year with Cooper Flagg or in 2023 with Victor Wembanyama, there is no name penciled in for the top selection when the 2026 NBA Draft rolls around.

Instead, there are three standout freshmen who each would have a case for the top pick in any given year, with the chance for a surprise name to emerge always on the table. DraftKings Sportsbook is offering a market for which player will be selected as the number one overall pick.

With the college basketball season officially beginning, here is a look at the opening odds and a bit about each player in what will likely turn out to be a three-player race.

2026 NBA Draft Number 1 Pick Odds:

Darryn Peterson (+155)

A 6-foot-6 combo guard suiting up for the Kansas Jayhawks, Darryn Peterson holds the crown for the best pure scorer out of this upper echelon of talent. He is a high-level defender who can get hot in a hurry with a near 6-foot-11 wingspan. Peterson is a good-not-great athlete by the sky-high NBA standards, but processes the game with an incredibly fluid attack. An Ohio native who first began receiving high-level Division I offers while he was still in eighth grade, Peterson committed to Kansas, which opens the year as the 19th-ranked team in the country.

His offense will steal the headlines, with him being an efficient scorer and natural playmaker. But there is a case that his defense could sway teams to just as significant an extent. The collegiate level will be a new challenge, but Peterson is effective at swallowing up smaller players with his length and does an excellent job getting his hands on the ball to force turnovers. He can finish with both hands and has a pathway to being a true three-level scorer. Peterson has already lit it up in the preseason, and the foundation has been laid for what should be a stellar year.

AJ Dybantsa (+180)

A modern-day wing with 6-foot-9 size, fluid moments, and self-creation ability, AJ Dybantsa will be leading BYU this season. He is an explosive leaper with highlight-reel dunk potential and a sneaky handle at his size. Dybantsa attacks the rim with aggression and gets to the free-throw line at a high rate. He moves far better than his size would suggest, and there is a polish to his skillset beyond just raw athleticism. The 18-year-old certainly will have his moments in transition, but he seems most comfortable rocking an opponent to sleep with a jab step before attacking the rim with a quick burst.

How good a shooter he truly is will be a major swing skill for Dybantsa. He has looked serviceable and confident from this area of the floor, but shooting is at a premium more than ever, and will be something viewed under a close lens by NBA teams. Even if the shot never ends up being more than passable, his motor is impressive, and there is enough in his game for the Boston area native to impact winning at a high level. His footwork is advanced, and he can finish with either hand around the rim. BYU is going to be a legitimate threat this year, and count on Dybantsa to set the tone on both sides of the floor.

Cameron Boozer (+235)

If you are to listen to Cameron Boozer speak, you would not guess he is a freshman — or even a rookie. The 6-foot-9 forward carries himself like a 10-year NBA veteran and is one of the most accomplished high school athletes of all time. This is at least partially due to his father being a 13-year NBA veteran in Carlos Boozer. While the play styles are not the same, Cameron possesses a similar advanced ability to seal opponents deep and maintain strong post position. It is also worth noting that his fraternal twin, Cayden, is also on this Duke roster with NBA potential in his own right. Cayden is more of a true guard and stands a bit smaller in frame at 6-foot-4.

Most impressive about Cameron is his off-ball instinct and ability to create shots without having the ball in his hands. He is a great cutter with the strength to finish through contact and should see plenty of and-one opportunities all season. The physicality he plays with is rare for any college basketball player, let alone an 18-year-old. But he is more than just a pure post player, with the ability to put the ball on the floor and create as well. Boozer’s shot continued to get better throughout his high school career, and he is more than capable as a catch-and-shooter for self-creation. More than anything, he is a guy who very clearly impacts winning at a high level and feels a clean fit for Duke’s identity as a program.

The Picks: Cameron Boozer (+235)

This is going to be a tight competition for the best player in this draft class, and debates should be expected to continue up until draft night. But there is a leadership quality to Boozer that makes me believe he will impact winning at a high level, regardless of the roster around him. This is not a problem for him to worry about at Duke, as they should be viewed as legitimate National Championship threats this season. Expect Boozer to look like a man among boys all year and have some really impressive box score outputs.

Tennessee’s Nate Ament is the only other player I give a real chance at sneaking into the top pick conversation, but the +8000 odds rightfully indicate the gap he would need to close. Ultimately, expect this to be a race between Peterson, Dybantsa, and Boozer, with each having a chance to take control throughout the season. With this in mind, I am holding onto the longest ticket out of the three and predicting a Duke forward to be selected with the top pick for the second straight season.

Sean Barnard is a Philadelphia-based writer with experience in the sports media and the betting space since 2020. He has a particular focus on the NBA, but covers a wide range that includes the NFL, WNBA, college basketball, and the MLB. Sean started working for DraftKings Network in 2024. Prior to this you can read his work at ClutchPoints, Philly Sports Network, and Heavy Sports. He also is still active in the Philadelphia Sports Radio scene and is a writer for Crossing Broad.
Disclaimer

I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skills and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.