The New England Patriots struck gold with Drake Maye, who is a legit MVP candidate in just his second NFL season. The team is 6-2 and leads the AFC East heading into Week 9.
The Falcons aren’t doing as well with their second-year quarterback Michael Penix Jr. Atlanta is 3-4 and enters on a two-game losing streak.
New England is a 4.5-point favorite and -238 on the moneyline, while Atlanta is +195 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The game total is set at 45.5 points.
Here are my favorite player props for this Week 9 NFL game between the Patriots and Falcons.
Patriots vs. Falcons Best Prop Bets
Drake Maye under 28.5 pass attempts (-101)
Maye’s quickly rose to stardom after a decent rookie season. The second-year quarterback is completing passes at a league-leading 75.2% rate while throwing 15 touchdowns to three interceptions.
Despite his success, he doesn’t throw that often. Maye is averaging 28.3 pass attempts per game for a handful of reasons. The Patriots like to run the ball, ranking seventh in carries, but Maye is also great at throwing deep. His 9.0 yards per attempt ranks third behind Sam Darnold and Lamar Jackson.
These two reasons can limit Maye’s attempts, but not his effectiveness. He’s still one of the best quarterbacks in the league, and it’s arguably more impressive to record such stellar numbers on limited throws.
Atlanta’s pass defense is also strong, allowing the fewest attempts and yards to opposing teams.
Drake London under 5.5 receptions (-136)
Penix and Drake London missed the Falcons’ Week 8 contest, but they’re both expected to return against. the Patriots. That’s good news for Atlanta, but this will be a difficult matchup for London.
London will likely matchup with New England’s star corner Christian Gonzalez. Atlanta has a handful of other offensive weapons, so it’ll be OK without a superb performance from London. Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts are two options in the pass game for Penix. Robinson, of course, will be the lead rusher, too.
London finished with fewer than six receptions in three of six games this year.
TreVeyon Henderson over 55.5 rushing yards (-109)
Rhamondre Stevenson is out for this game, finally clearing the way for rookie TreVeyon Henderson to lead the backfield. Henderson has been fairly limited this year, but he rushed for 75 yards on 10 carries last week against the Browns, who have a good run defense.
Atlanta doesn’t have nearly as good of a run defense, and Henderson won’t be competing with Stevenson for touches. This is his breakout game.