The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race at Phoenix marks the end of another thrilling season. Four drivers will battle for the title, but the rest of the field still has plenty of motivation — and betting value. Let’s break down the best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Sunday’s finale in the desert.
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Kyle Larson +330
The winner won’t be the fastest. The Cup Series Championship will be decided by the driver and team that make the fewest mistakes. That doesn’t just apply to Sunday — the race started weeks, if not months, ago. The team that built the best Gen-7 stock car will unload a step ahead on Saturday. A perfect session that day could lead to the pole and, more importantly, the decisive No. 1 pit stall.
From there, clean air is king. A mistake-free day on pit road can be the difference between a title and heartbreak. The most common cause of small but devastating mistakes is pressure. Denny Hamlin, William Byron and Chase Briscoe are all under immense pressure. Kyle Larson is the only title contender with a Cup Series Championship. He feels the pressure too, but not like the others. He’s loose. His pit crew is loose. His crew chief isn’t weighed down by every decision. They’ve been here before. Hamlin loves to brag about beating fan favorites in races that don’t matter. But in the one that did — the 2021 Cup Series Championship — Kyle Larson beat Denny Hamlin.
Practice didn’t answer many questions. As usual, the Gen-7 cars are evenly matched. On the margins, there are subtle differences. Larson showed exceptional long-run speed, but this race may not come down to that. In fact, it probably won’t. The Cup Series Championship will most likely be won on pit road — something that can’t be predicted, especially when all four contenders are elite in that area. Still, the data suggests Larson is an inch ahead. When everything else is equal, take the inch.
