Michigan State enters this weekend winless in conference play, a shocking fall for a longtime great program. If the Spartans are going to salvage their season, they’ll need a victory on Saturday. However, earning a win on the road at Minnesota won’t be easy. The Golden Gophers are 5-3, looking to earn their fifth-straight bowl game appearance.
These two foes each have something to prove this afternoon. Who will come out on top in this Big Ten battle? Below is my prediction and pick for College Football Week 10’s game between the Michigan State Spartans and the Minnesota Golden Gophers.
Minnesota enters this contest as four-point favorites (-108) over Michigan State, with the over/under set at 44.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Gophers are favored at -185 on the moneyline.
Michigan State vs. Minnesota prediction, preview
A home game against hated Michigan was a letdown for the Spartans during last week’s 31-20 defeat. At this point, it’s difficult for the MSU faithful to have much optimism over the state of this program. Regardless, there’s still talent on this roster. Aidan Chiles is an intriguing dual-threat quarterback, passing for ten touchdowns and rushing for six more. The wideout duo of Nick Marsh and Omari Kelly are both averaging over 50 receiving yards per game.
Michigan State is only gaining 3.63 yards per carry, the Big Ten’s sixth-worst mark. The school’s 14 rushing touchdowns also rank near the bottom of the conference. If the Spartans are going to find success on offense, they may need Chiles to throw the ball often. However, the Gophers are only allowing 190.0 passing yards per game. Over Minnesota’s previous three games, no opposing quarterback has thrown for more than 203 yards.
It’s not as if Michigan State’s defense has been lighting the world on fire. In fact, the Spartans have been downright awful on that side of the ball. Through eight contests, they’ve allowed a conference-worst 32.5 points per game. Whether its through the air or on the ground, MSU has proven to be incredibly vulnerable. The team has allowed 30+ points in each of its previous five matchups, all against Big Ten squads. Pressure has been virtually non-existent for the Spartans. No defender on this roster has recorded more than 2.0 sacks.
Minnesota will hope to take advantage of this glaring weakness on Saturday. Granted, quarterback Drake Lindsey hasn’t set the world on fire. So far, he’s notched 1,546 passing yards, ten touchdowns and six interceptions. Last week against Iowa, the Golden Gophers only put up three points. Still, this offense has scored 20+ in three of their previous five appearances. Getting a strong running game will be key for head coach P.J. Fleck. Minnesota is only averaging 110.5 rush yards per game, third-worst in the Big Ten.
Michigan State vs. Minnesota pick, best bet
There are reasons for skepticism when it comes to Minnesota, especially after last week’s blowout loss. Still, the Golden Gophers have proven they can take care of business against less talented teams. In comparison, Michigan State football looks like a shell of its former self. Chiles has had flashes of greatness, but he’s also prone to mental mistakes. Without much help on offense, that could spell trouble. I’ll take my chances with the home team this afternoon.
