In 2023-24, Bayer Leverkusen broke Bayern Munich’s stranglehold on the Bundesliga, claiming it without suffering a defeat after Bayern had won each of the last 11 titles. The Bavarian giants got their redemption the following season, finishing 13 points clear of Leverkusen in 2024-25.
The two sides will meet this afternoon at 1:30 p.m. ET (6:30 p.m. local) at the Allianz Arena in Munich for the first time this season in Matchweek 9 of the 2025-26 Bundesliga.
The Bavarians are -475 favorites to win and +600 to draw at DraftKings Sportsbook, while Die Werkself is +850 to win.
Bayern Munich vs. Bayer Leverkusen prediction, pick
The lopsided line isn’t without reason: Bayern is off to the best start in European history, becoming the first club in Europe’s top five leagues to win each of its first 14 matches in all competitions.
Since the start of August, only one team has even come within a goal, when Borussia Dortmund lost 2-1 in Matchweek 7. In his team’s historic run of dominance, Harry Kane has emerged as arguably the world’s most clinical striker, finding the back of the net 22 times across all competitions. In fact, Bayern’s Matchweek 8 win over Borussia Mönchengladbach was the first Bundesliga game this season in which Kane did not register either a goal or an assist. The brilliant Englishman is far from alone, though; Colombian striker Luis Díaz, who joined from Liverpool over the summer, has registered nine goal contributions in the league, and Michael Olise and Serge Gnabry have each contributed at least six. Bayern’s defense has arguably been even more otherworldly; in eight matches, it has conceded only 14 total shots on goal despite not having Alphonso Davies, who tore his ACL in March. No other German team has allowed fewer than 22. The Bavarians have scored nine more goals than any other team and allowed two fewer.
By comparison, Leverkusen looks awful, but that’s not entirely true: Die Werkself has won each of its last four Bundesliga matches, and it has had a 6-3-1 record in all competitions under Kasper Hjulmand after firing Erik ten Hag just three games into the season. Six different Leverkusen players have found the back of the net at least twice, including captain Álex Grimaldo, who’s scored four times in eight matches from the left back position. They’re no Florian Wirtz, Jeremie Frimpong, Victor Boniface, and Piero Hincapié, all of whom departed the club in the summer transfer window, but Die Werkself has a few intriguing young talents in 21-year-old Dutchman Ernest Poku and 19-year-old Cameroonian Christian Kofane, each of whom have netted at least twice. Malik Tillman and Eliesse Ben Seghir have been good additions so far, as has Mark Flekken, who has a 73.5% save percentage between the sticks. By expected goal differential and recent form, Leverkusen is the second-best team in the Bundesliga.
I just can’t see Die Werkself coming away with a win. Even though it went 2-1 against its rival in domestic competitions last season, it just lost too many key players. Leverkusen’s stats look fine under Hjulmand, but the one time it faced a team of Bayern’s caliber in Paris Saint-Germain, it was throttled 7-2 behind an absolute finishing clinic by the reigning Champions League winners. In that match, Die Werkself produced 2.3 expected goals’ worth of chances, just 0.5 xG fewer than PSG, but Robert Andrich’s 33rd minute red card and its lack of sharp finishers did it in. It’s hard to see Leverkusen doing worse today, especially if Vincent Kompany chooses to rest some players in order to prepare for the Bavarians’ Champions League clash against Paris on Tuesday. Still, if the PSG match is any indication, Die Werkself has a long way to go, and Bayern simply looks unstoppable.
