The second service academy showdown of the season will be taking place this week as the Air Force Falcons host the Army Black Knights. Both teams enter with a below .500 record and unique styles of play, with Army holding a chance to eliminate Air Force from contention for the Commander-in-Chief trophy race
These two programs have faced off 59 times in their history. Air Force has come out victorious in 38 of these with one tie tallied back in 1959. Army has had more luck in recent years, winning back-to-back matchups entering this game and six of the last eight games between these two teams.
Looking at the odds for this year’s matchup, Air Force enters as narrow 1.5-point favorite and holds -110 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook of winning outright. Army also holds -110 odds of pulling off the outright upset, with the game total set at 48.5
This article provides a preview of both teams and offers a pick for the Week 10 matchup.
Army vs. Air Force prediction, preview
Army Black Knights
Army enters with a 3-4 record and is 2-3 in conference play this season. It’s produced victories over Kansas State, UAB, and Charlotte University, with losses against Tarleton State in double overtime, North Texas, ECU, and Tulane. The Black Knights are 3-3-1 against the spread this year.
Cale Hellums stands in at quarterback and is vital to executing Army’s run-oriented offense. He has completed 51.4% of his pass attempts for 274 passing yards, one touchdown and one interception while adding a team-high 613 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. Noah Short and Hayden Reed each add over 300+ rushing yards on the season with Reed pitching in three touchdowns of his own. Dewayne Coleman also plays a role in this dual-threat quarterback position. Coleman has completed 54.3% of his pass attempts for 273 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions while pitching in 296 rushing yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Brady Anderson is the team’s leading receiver with 264 yards and two touchdowns.
Army is averaging 23.9 points per game which ranks 98th among the 136 FBS teams. They are generating 361.1 total yards of offense with 275.6 of these coming through the running game. Defensively, they are holding opponents to 24.0 points per game, which ranks 64th, and 348.7 total yards of offense. The Black Knights have generated just seven sacks and forced eight turnovers on the year.
Air Force Falcons
The Air Force Falcons enter with a 2-5 record on the season and are 1-4 on conference play. They opened the year with a victory over Bucknell, but dropped five consecutive games at the hands of Utah State, Boise State, Hawaii, Navy, and UNLV. Air Force bounced back with a 24-21 victory over Wyoming last week and will look to carry that momentum into this matchup. They are 3-4 against the spread this season.
Liam Szarka also employs a dual-threat style at quarterback for Air Force, although not quite to the level of Army’s attack. Szarka has completed 61.1% of his pass attempts for 1,058 passing yards, eight touchdowns, and three interceptions while adding a Mountain West-leading 725 rushing yards and nine scores on the ground. Owen Allen, Dylan Carson, Cade Harris, and Kade Frew each also contribute to the rushing attack with 196+ rushing yards each and 11 combined rushing scores. Cade Harris is also the team’s leading receiver with 492 receiving yards and two touchdowns while Quin Smith and Bruin Fleischmann each have 249+ yards through the air with seven combined touchdowns.
Air Force is averaging 36.3 points per game, which ranks 22nd among the 136 FBS teams. They are generating 472.1 average yards of offense with 283.7 of these coming on the ground. Defensively is where the team’s issues have arose. The Falcons are allowing 484.1 total yards of offense and 37.3 points per game, which ranks 132nd. Across their five game losing streak, they gave up 34+ points in each game and 49+ in three of these. They have tallied 11 sacks and forced just six turnovers on the year.
Army vs. Air Force pick, best bet
Typically these service academy matchups are cash cows for the under. Since 2003, the under is 51-13-3 in these matchups including cashing in 11 straight in the Army vs. Air Force rivalry. No matchup between these two sides has gone above 35 since 2016.
However, the inability of Air Force to get stops and surprisingly high powered offense has me looking at this game differently. The over has cashed in during six of Air Force’s seven games this season. Even in their losses they have not been held below 24 points all season and they have scored 30+ in six of the seven games.
Army has not had as much offensive success, but have still have put up 24+ points in five of their seven games. Expect the team to be thrilled facing off against this porous Air Force defense, which is allowing 177.0 rushing yards per game and 2.7 rushing touchdowns per game. Expect big rushing gains frequently throughout this game.
My lean would be towards Air Force, which has too much offensive talent not to earn this victory. It feels improbable for Army to have much of a chance at consistently slowing down the Air Force attack. But I am most confident in this turning into a shootout which breaks the trends of past matchups between these programs. Expect both teams to have a chance at cracking 30 individually and for this matchup to soar past the 48.5 point game total.
