This was supposed to be one of, if not the game of the year in college football. Will this be the year Penn State finally beats Ohio State? That was the question we were asking ourselves, as recently as September. DraftKings Sportsbook opened a preseason line of Ohio State -4.5 in this game, and the spread eventually touched as low as 3.5.
Now, the game is here, and Penn State has been priced as high as a 20.5-point underdog in Columbus. Despite not facing any legitimate tests so far this season, the Buckeyes have dominated the competition and separated themselves as the best team in the country — particularly on defense. Of course, Penn State failed a home test to Oregon, and went on to suffer a pair of dreadful losses to UCLA and Northwestern that eventually led to the firing of James Franklin. Not to mention, Drew Allar went down for the season as well.
Ethan Grunkemeyer has not been impressive under center for the Nittany Lions, failing to reach 100 passing yards and throwing two interceptions when we last saw him play two weeks ago at Iowa. Penn State did somehow manage 24 points (seven off a blocked kick) in a losing effort to the Hawkeyes. Both teams are off a bye, but this will be more about what Penn State was able to fix with the time off, following four straight losses and operating under a new head coach.
If the Nittany Lions got to a three touchdown underdog in this game, I was going to have to consider backing them. But instead, the market has started to go the other way, with Penn State down to +18.5 as of Friday afternoon’s publishing of this piece. The total has also moved up a couple of points throughout the week. Most years I like to simply play this matchup to the under, which is 8-2 the last 10 times these teams have faced off. While I’d like to say I trust Penn State to continue that trend on defense here, I’m not sure I can.
Jim Knowles goes from defensive coordinator of Ohio State to the same role for Penn State, and should have a strong game plan here against his former program. But Ryan Day can be petty, and might look to light it up against his former DC. Grunkemeyer can also be mistake prone, which could lead to some points on defense, or at least strong field position for the Buckeyes.
What I do feel confident in, is that PSU is going to have a nearly impossible time scoring in this game. The Buckeyes are giving up fewer than six points per game on defense this season. The only opponent to score double digits against them was on the road at Illinois, when the Illini got a late touchdown to land on 16 points. While a garbage time score could be in play again here, the Penn State offense in its current state isn’t even close to what the Illini are.
While I’m still on the fence on if I’ll come around and bet this game, there’s really only one play in the current market that I can justify, and it’s the under on Penn State’s team total.
CFB Pick: Penn State Team Total UNDER 13.5 (-120)
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