The college football season is flying by with Week 10 having already arrived. Kicking off as part of the noon window on the Saturday slate, the SMU Mustangs will host the Miami Hurricanes.
Miami successfully bounced back from their loss to Louisville with a victory over Stanford and are ranked 10th in the country. SMU is off to a 5-3 start to the season and is looking to bounce back from a loss to Wake Forest last week.
This is just the second ever time these programs have matched up on the football field. SMU produced a 7-3 win back in 1965.
Looking at the odds for this year’s matchup, Miami enters as a 10.5-point road favorite and holds -395 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook of winning outright. SMU holds +310 odds of pulling off the outright upset, with the game total set at 50.5
This article provides a preview of both teams and offers a pick for the Week 10 matchup.
Miami vs. SMU prediction, preview
Miami Hurricanes
The Hurricanes are off to a 6-1 start to the season and have been one of the best teams in the sport. They have produced victories over Notre Dame, Bethune-Cookman, South Florida, Florida, Florida State and Stanford. Their loss at the hands of Louisville is their lone blemish, with Carson Beck’s four interceptions proving too much to overcome. Miami is 5-2 against the spread this year.
After spending five seasons at Georgia, Carson Beck made the transfer down to Miami and has found his footing. He has completed an ACC-best 72.2% of his pass attempts for 1,673 yards, 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions, while adding one score with his legs. Malachi Toney headlines the wide receiver production with 562 yards through the air along with three touchdowns, while CJ Daniels has a conference-leading six receiving touchdowns and 351 yards of his own. Mark Fletcher Jr. has a team-high 552 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns, while CharMar Brown also plays a role in the offensive attack with 243 rushing yards and four rushing scores on the season.
Miami is averaging 34.0 points per game, which ranks 37th among FBS teams, and is producing 411.1 yards of total offense. It is holding opponents to just 14.1 points per game, which is the eighth-best rate in the country. The Hurricanes have allowed just 270.4 total yards of offense including just 87.3 rushing yards per game. They have tallied 42 tackles for a loss, 15 sacks and have forced 12 turnovers on the season.
SMU Mustangs
The SMU Mustangs are off to a 5-3 start to the season, but are 2-6 against the spread. They have produced victories over East Texas A&M, Missouri State, Syracuse and Stanford, while falling short to Baylor in double overtime, TCU and Wake Forest.
Kevin Jennings stands in at quarterback and has completed 66.3% of his passing attempts for 2,119 yards, an ACC-leading 17 passing touchdowns and eight interceptions. Romello Brinson is his top pass catcher with 515 receiving yards and three touchdowns on the season. Jordan Hudson adds 355 receiving yards and three touchdowns of his own, while Jalen Cooper, Yamir Knight, RJ Maryland, Matthew Hibner and Derrick McFall each have two receiving touchdowns. The rushing game production is led by TJ Harden with 456 yards and five touchdowns, while Chris Johnson Jr. has 314 rushing yards and three touchdowns of his own.
SMU is averaging 31.4 points per game, which ranks 51st in the country, and 388.0 total yards of offense. Defensively, they are holding opponents to 21.4 points per game, but allowing 399.0 total yards of offense. They have struggled to stop the pass, giving up 303.5 yards through the air per game. They have 54 tackles for a loss, 25 sacks and have forced 20 turnovers on the season.
Miami vs. SMU pick, best bet
Both these teams have high powered offenses that are capable of putting some major points on the board. My lean is toward the over and expect this to be a high scoring affair.
But this is also a great chance for Miami to add another notable victory and I expect it to capitalize. The Miami defense has shown far more reason for belief, while Carson Beck is in a strong spot for a massive statistical output. The Hurricanes have won 13 of their past 16 games against non-AP ranked teams, while SMU has dropped 20 of their past 22 games in November as an underdog. The Mustangs have also failed to cover the spread in their last five November games as an underdog. Miami has covered the spread in four of its last five games as favorites.
Miami has not played to its peak in the past two games, but looked to find its stride against Stanford, outscoring the Cardinal 35-0 in the second half. Concerns over Beck’s interceptions are the most legitimate reason for doubt, but Miami’s defense looks capable of slamming the door shut on this end of the field. After a really impressive start to the season, some doubts have creeped in for how good this Miami team truly is. Look for the Hurricanes to put these concerns to bed in this matchup by producing a convincing victory.
