Two seasons after winning the inaugural Emirates NBA Cup, the Los Angeles Lakers’ quest for a second title in three seasons begins tonight. All six groups were drawn in July, and the Lakers are in West Group B alongside the LA Clippers, the Dallas Mavericks, the New Orleans Pelicans, and the Memphis Grizzlies. The top team in each group, as well as the best second-place finisher, advance to the quarterfinals.
Los Angeles will open its group stage with a 9:30 p.m. ET matchup on the road against the Memphis Grizzlies. It might get a huge boost if superstar Luka Dončić, who has missed the last three games with leg and finger injuries, is able to suit up. The 26-year-old is currently listed as questionable, as is Marcus Smart, who missed the last two games with a quad issue.
The Grizzlies are 1.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook (-118 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 238.5. The Lakers are -102 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down both teams’ NBA Cup opener and offer my prediction.
Los Angeles Lakers at Memphis Grizzlies preview, prediction
Los Angeles has managed to survive so far without LeBron James and Dončić, winning two of its three games without the Slovenian in the lineup. In Dončić’s absence, Austin Reaves has been tremendous, averaging 40.0 points, 10.0 assists, and 2.3 steals per game on 50-41-93 shooting splits. Both of the Lakers’ free agent signings, Deandre Ayton and Jake LaRavia, have shown up as well, with Ayton averaging 18.3 points and 11.0 rebounds per game throughout that stretch and LaRavia putting up a brilliant 27-point performance to help upset the Minnesota Timberwolves. Regardless, Los Angeles would obviously love to have No. 77 back on the court tonight.
Memphis is 3-2 as well and dealing with an injury crisis of its own, as centers Zach Edey and Brandon Clarke and point guards Scotty Pippen Jr. and Ty Jerome all remain out. On the surface, that record is confidence-inspiring, but the Grizzlies have lost badly in both games that they’ve played against good teams in the Miami Heat and Golden State Warriors, and the three games that they’ve won have come against teams with a combined record of 1-12. Ja Morant’s jumper isn’t falling, as he’s connected on just 19.2% of his three-point tries, and Jaren Jackson Jr. has experienced a career-high turnover rate while not playing his usually elite defense. Of all the teams over .500, Memphis is the only one with a negative net rating.
Lakers at Grizzlies pick, best bet
The Lakers are shallow in the back-court with Dončić, Smart, and Gabe Vincent injured, as they’ve been forced to give rotational minutes to both Nick Smith Jr. and Bronny James over the last two games, so getting Dončić and Smart back tonight would be critical. Los Angeles’ offense has been extremely Reaves-centric over the past three games, as he leads the league with nine minutes of possession per game across that span. While the 27-year-old can clearly handle it, introducing more offensive initiation would be critical, especially against a Grizzlies team that has allowed the sixth-most assists so far this season (though, because of Dončić’s isolation-heavy play style, the Lakers have thrown among the league’s fewest passes with or without him on the court).
Neither of these teams have been great defensively, with Los Angeles ranking 17th in defensive rating and Memphis one spot behind. That figure should improve for the Lakers with Dončić and Smart back; Smart is a former Defensive Player of the Year, and even though Dončić’s reputation as a poor defender precedes him, he’s finished as a positive on that side of the ball by defensive box plus-minus in each season of his career and would rank fifth in that stat this season if he’d played enough minutes to qualify. The Grizzlies’ path back to defensive stoutness is murkier, since they’re now without four of their top six players by defensive box plus-minus last season. Perhaps teams will stop hitting 41.0% of their wide-open threes against them, but conceding the eighth-most wide-open attempts per game isn’t exactly ideal.
The key for Los Angeles will be to get inside: Memphis has conceded the sixth-highest shooting percentage in the restricted area after being the league’s fifth-best by that stat last season. That regression might not be a complete fluke, given that of the 31 players who played at least 65 games and defended at least five shots within six feet of the basket per game, Edey allowed the eighth-lowest percentage, and Clarke was even stingier in a smaller sample size. Dončić’s return could be key in putting pressure on the Grizzlies’ interior defenders, as he’s been the league’s second-most prolific and most efficient driver in the two games he’s played, but even if he doesn’t play, the Lakers have attempted more shots at the rim throughout Dončić’s absence.
On the other end, J.J. Redick’s men have been surprisingly stout in the paint so far, allowing the 10th-lowest percentage, even though they were roughly average rim protectors after trading for Dončić last season and added a non-deterrent in Ayton. Either way, finishing at the rim isn’t Memphis’ strength, as, like Los Angeles, it has attempted just 20.6 shots per game at the rim this season. Instead, the Grizzlies should focus on emphasizing shots in the corner, where the Lakers have been the league’s third-worst defensive team and where Memphis has been the seventh-least efficient. In part, both can be attributed to shooting luck: opponents have converted wide open triples at the fourth-highest clip against Los Angeles so far, and the Grizzlies have canned them at the 12th-lowest rate.
With or without Dončić, the Lakers have enough to beat a Memphis team that is still out of sorts as it deals with its injuries. This Grizzlies’ soft schedule has belied their struggles, and I won’t believe they can beat a good team until they actually do.
