These are my picks to win every Week 9 NFL game straight up, tiered by confidence level and ranked within each tier.
You can bet on any of these games on DraftKings Sportsbook.
NFL Week 9 Confidence Picks
High Confidence
Packers over Panthers
The Packers had a concerning two weeks, losing to the Browns and tying the Cowboys. That was followed by a much-needed bye week, and the Packers have silenced critics ever since. Green Bay has won three straight, and now it has a favorable home matchup against the Panthers. Andy Dalton got the start last week for Carolina and it was a disaster. There is a chance Bryce Young returns this week, but either Dalton or a less-than-100% Young will be starting. Either one of those quarterbacks should get destroyed by the Packers’ defense. Jordan Love is having an excellent season and should score enough to make this a comfortable win.
Rams over Saints
The Rams have had a strong start to the season and now come out of the bye week feeling fresh. Most importantly for the Rams, Puka Nacua is expected to return for this game. With the duo of Nacua and Davante Adams, this offense is hard for anyone to stop. The Saints rank 22nd in defensive EPA/dropback, so Matthew Stafford should pick them apart. Tyler Shough will be making his first career start and will struggle against the Rams’ defense.
Chargers over Titans
The Titans just continue to lose football games. Their only win this season came against the Cardinals, where the Cardinals completely handed the game away. Other than that win, the Titans have been getting demolished. They have not been within seven points in a loss this season. This team still has a long way to go, and this solid Chargers group should get the win.
Ravens over Dolphins
The Ravens are finally getting Lamar Jackson back on Thursday. The team picked up a massive win over the Bears with Tyler Huntley at quarterback last week to keep its season alive. With Jackson back at the helm, the team has a chance to go on a serious run and sneak into the playoffs. The Dolphins’ pass defense has major issues and Jackson should have a big game to announce his return to the field.
Lions over Vikings
The Lions are coming off a bye week after a big primetime win over the Buccaneers the week prior. This team is one of the best in the NFL, but it is in fierce competition with the Packers in the NFC North. The Lions can’t afford any weeks off if they want to win the division. Minnesota is getting J.J. McCarthy back at quarterback, but this is a brutal test for McCarthy in his first game back against a Lions defense that ranks fourth in the NFL in EPA/play.
Medium Confidence
Patriots over Falcons
The Patriots have been on fire over the past few weeks. They have won five straight games. While the schedule has been quite easy, apart from the Buffalo game, this is another very winnable matchup for New England. Things are not going great in Atlanta. The Falcons are banged up, with Michael Penix Jr. and Drake London both missing last week. Even if they return, this offense has been much worse on the road this season. The Patriots should keep the winning streak going against the Falcons.
Seahawks over Commanders
The Seahawks picked up a good win on Monday Night Football to remain atop the NFC West, then were given a bye week to rest up. They should be totally prepared for a matchup against a struggling Commanders squad. Jayden Daniels continues to be banged up and this team is just missing the magic that they found last season. Sam Darnold is playing at an elite level, connecting with Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The Seahawks’ offense will win the day here.
Cowboys over Cardinals
The Cowboys have one of the best offenses in the NFL, but one of the worst defenses. They want to get into a shootout, which doesn’t work when playing an elite defense like they did last week against Denver. Back at home against the Cardinals, who rank 20th in the NFL in defensive EPA/play, the Cowboys’ offense should explode again. The Cardinals will need to score to keep up with them, and their offense ranks 28th in success rate. The Cowboys should win another shootout in Dallas.
Colts over Steelers
The Colts have been the best team in the NFL this season. This is a tough spot on the road against Pittsburgh, but they have not fallen off yet. This is the best running team in the NFL, led by Jonathan Taylor. Daniel Jones is also the fourth-best quarterback in the NFL, measured by EPA+CPOE composite. This team is complete at every level, while the Steelers still have glaring issues on both sides of the ball. Indianapolis should win another one, even in a tough road environment.
Coin-Flip Games
49ers over Giants
The Giants suffered a devastating injury to Cam Skattebo last week. While Tyrone Tracy Jr. is a solid fill-in, the energy that Skattebo brought is irreplaceable. Jaxson Dart had such an excellent connection with Skattebo and this injury will hurt the rookie quarterback. The Eagles took it to the Giants last week, showing that the spark that Dart and Skattebo provided might be going out. The 49ers are finally getting healthier and should get a win against the Giants.
Bears over Bengals
The Bears were on a four-game winning streak prior to dropping one to the Ravens last week. Chicago should bounce back and get another win on the board against the Bengals. That was a Ravens team fighting for its life in front of a rowdy home crowd. This week, the Bengals could be a defeated team after being the first team to lose to the Jets this season. The Bengals’ defense is one of the worst in the league, and that makes it hard for them to win any games.
Jaguars over Raiders
The Jaguars are in need of a win to get things back on track. It will be hard for them to catch the Colts for the division, which means they are likely to be in a very competitive AFC Wild Card race. This team lost back-to-back games before a much-needed bye last week. The bye should have given them a chance to refresh and fix things that were going wrong on both sides of the ball. This Raiders team has been unimpressive all season, making this a prime chance for Jacksonville to get back on track.
Texans over Broncos
The Texans finally got a good win last week against the 49ers. After the bad start to the season, that win kept their season alive. This is now a battle of two of the NFL’s best defenses. Houston ranks first in the NFL in defensive EPA/play and should make things tough on Denver. Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud has been much more reliable at home throughout his career. If this game were in Denver, I would be backing the Broncos, but the home-field comfort for Stroud is the difference in this coin-flip game.
Chiefs over Bills
The biggest game of the weekend is also the hardest to predict. The Bills had been on a skid before the bye week, but they bounced back with a resounding blowout win over the Panthers. This will be an infinitely tougher matchup, but the win should have this team feeling confident again. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have won five of their past six and are starting to look like the Death Star Chiefs once again. These are two of the top four offenses in football by EPA/play. However, Kansas City has an edge on the defensive side of the ball. In a true coin-flip game, the more trustworthy defense should get the one or two stops needed to win.
