The Bucks are hosting the Warriors on Thursday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Golden State is favored by 3.5 points and this game carries a total of 231.5 points.
Below, I break down this matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Bucks vs. Warriors preview, prediction
With Giannis Antetokounmpo dominating, the Bucks are off to a 3-1 start this season and they rank ninth in net rating. The former MVP ranks third in the NBA in scoring with 36.3 PPG while shooting 69.5% from the field. Antetokounmpo also is averaging 14.0 rebounds, 7.0 assists and 1.3 blocks per game. However, Milwaukee’s next leading scorer after Antetokounmpo is Ryan Rollins at 15.3 PPG. While Antetokounmpo had great complementary pieces like Damian Lillard, Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton in previous years, the Bucks are very much a one-man show nowadays, with Antetokonmpo handling a huge 35.9% usage rate this season, which ranks second only to Luka Doncic.
Milwaukee is going to need to one of it’s secondary players like Cole Anthony or Kyle Kuzma to become a consistent scorer if the Bucks want to be a real threat in the Eastern Conference this season. In matchups that an opponent can somewhat contain Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee is going to run into trouble, which could be the case tonight with the Warriors in town.
The Warriors had a disappointing end to their season in the playoffs last spring, with Stephen Curry going down with a hamstring injury, but with the sharpshooter and Jimmy Butler fully healthy again, Golden State has been excellent to start 2025-26. The Warriors are 4-1 and they rank 10th in net rating. Golden State defeated the Nuggets in the season opener and the Warriors are coming off an impressive 19-point road win over the Clippers on Tuesday, which was the second game of a back-to-back set.
Curry is leading the team with 27.1 PPG while shooting 50% from the field, and Butler has also been ultra efficient, averaging 21.4 PPG on 54.4% shooting. With these two veterans active the last two seasons, the Warriors boast a 31-9 record.
Additionally, Jonathan Kuminga has been strong after his contract holdout with Golden State this summer. After being a bench player for most of last season, Kuminga is now starting and averaging 16.2 points, 7.4 rebounds and 3.4 assists per game while shooting 53.7% from the field. The Warriors have been moving the ball extremely well, leading the league in assist rate and their defense has been stout, ranking 11th by points per 100 possessions.
Golden State has some great individual defenders to throw at Antetokounmpo, in Butler, Draymond Green and Al Horford, and the Warriors should have a strong game plan to slow down the former MVP. In his lone matchup with the Warriors last season, Antetkounmpo shot 31% from the field and finished with only 20 points in a full workload of 38.5 minutes.
Bucks vs. Warriors pick, best bet
The Warriors are a true title contender when healthy and they have the tools to bother Antetokounmpo. Golden State should notch another impressive road win and the Warriors are a terrific bet to cover this 3.5-point spread.
When competing on the road the last two seasons, Golden State is 27-21-2 ATS.
