Another week of NFL football kicks off on Thursday as the Baltimore Ravens head to South Beach to take on the Miami Dolphins in primetime. Neither team has a winning record to this point, but Lamar Jackson reenters the fold for the visitors after missing a handful of games and looks to revitalize his team. His return greatly boosts the outlook for Derrick Henry, who sees the chance to run all over a weak rushing defense.
Here are the best Derrick Henry prop bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for Ravens vs. Dolphins on Thursday Night Football in Week 9.
Best Derrick Henry prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Once the crown jewel of NFL running backs, Derrick Henry’s seen some regression this season but has still managed a more-than respectable stat line. Across seven games, he’s toted the ball 109 times for 510 yards and six total touchdowns, placing him 12th among all halfbacks in yardage and fifth in rushing scores. He’s not utterly dominating opponents as in the past since he’s exceeded 100 yards on the ground only twice this year, but with Jackson back on the field, Henry should see plenty of benefits. The presence of the dual-threat quarterback means defenses can’t key in on the halfback and stack the box nearly as much, so the Ravens’ ground game should only improve from here. Plus, Henry still averages an efficient 4.7 YPC and it’s clear he still maintains some gas in the tank.
This week’s matchup brings massive upside for Baltimore. On a per-game basis, the Dolphins’ defense ranks 26th in opponent points while allowing 2.9 touchdowns; 28th in opponent rushing yards (145.0), 29th in opponent YPC (5.0); and 23rd in opponent rush TDs (1.3). Miami also sits 27th in defensive EPA/rush (-0.04) and have allowed a total of 10 scores on the ground, tied for second-most. While this defense somehow bottled up Bijan Robinson with 25 yards on nine carries this past week, the Dolphins allowed some huge days to several halfbacks in recent weeks — Quinshon Judkins (84 YDS/3 TD), Kimani Vidal (124 YDS), Rico Dowdle (206 YDS/1 TD) and Breece Hall (84 YDS) all saw significant success.
Simply put, it doesn’t take an expert to determine that Henry and the rest of the Ravens’ rushing attack are primed for a massive outing. As such, DraftKings Sportsbook lists his prop bet lines at 18.5 rush attempts and 91.5 rushing yards with -235 odds to score an anytime touchdown.
One thing to keep in mind with Henry is that with his lack of pass-catching pedigree, he can end up sidelined in negative game scripts that see the Ravens playing from behind. That probably won’t happen with Jackson back against a poor defense, but the NFL proves time and again to expect the unexpected. It’s probably best to avoid Henry’s rush attempts prop and gravitate towards something else. Despite only going over this line in two games, his yardage total is one to feel confident in for Thursday night in such a positive matchup. We’ve seen over the years that the halfback seems to get stronger the further into the season he gets, and an alt line of 100+ yards can even make a little more sense at +116 odds rather than the -111 on the standard O/U.
With that said though, the sneaky pick of 2+ touchdowns for Henry provides more value at +225 on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Ravens star has 10 attempts from inside the five-yard line this season as well as 22 runs inside the red zone. His potential to score a touchdown remains very high, but the odds he crosses the plane twice make this a nice value play in a game Baltimore should comfortably lead.
