Game 5 of the World Series is on tap Wednesday night in Los Angeles. After a Game 3 marathon and a resounding answer from the Blue Jays in Game 4, the series is tied 2-2 heading into a critical Game 5. In the four games of this series, the two teams have combined to hit 12 home runs. Let’s dive into the home run props on DraftKings Sportsbook for Game 5, and find a few players poised for more long balls this Wednesday. After taking a look at the matchups, odds and current form of the players available, my favorite home run props for Game 5 are for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez.
Just a brief reminder before we swing for the fences–even more so than during the regular season, all home run props are long shot bets by their very nature. In fact, with such a small pool and elite pitchers, they are even more difficult to hit in the postseason. Home run props are never “safe” picks, but a few key indicators can help point us in the right direction. While home run props can be a fun part of your betting strategy, they shouldn’t be heavily relied on since they’re so volatile. What makes home run props exciting is that the longer odds yield big returns when they do hit.
Breaking down the numbers and matchups, here is why I like these home run props in Wednesday’s Game 5 matchup:
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ Home Run (+415)
Guerrero continued his incredible offseason with another homer on Tuesday, this time off Shohei Ohtani.
While it was his first World Series homer, he has had an impressive postseason overall with seven homers in 15 games in the playoffs. He had “only” 23 homers in the regular season, which was his lowest total since the abbreviated 2020 season. He’s been absolutely on fire in the postseason, though, going 26-for-62 (.419) with three doubles, seven homers, and 14 RBI in 15 games.
Guerrero is 3-for-13 in his career against Game 5 starter Blake Snell with a double and four walks. Snell was excellent at limiting homers this season overall and especially at home, where he allowed just one home run all season.
However, even with that tough matchup, my biggest concern backing Guerrero is that he may not get much to hit. The Dodgers bullpen could be the key again in Wednesday’s matchup, and after they struggled in Game 4, I could see Guerrero going deep later in the game off whoever comes on in relief.
If he does get opportunities, he has definitely shown the current form to deliver great value at these 4:1 odds in his home run props.
Teoscar Hernandez 1+ Home Run (+495)
On the other side of the Game 5 matchup, I like Hernandez’s potential to go yard since he’s one of the Dodgers most proven right-handed power bats. He hit a homer early in Game 3, when he went 4-for-8 in the marathon.
He hasn’t been quite as hot as Guerrero but he has gone 16-for-59 (.271) in the postseason for Los Angeles with a double, five homers, and 12 RBI in 14 games.
Hernandez and the Dodgers will face youngster Trey Yesavage to start Game 5.. In his small sample size in the majors, he held lefties to a .161 average and .216 wOBA, while righties hit .333 with a .352 wOBA. He didn’t give up a home run in Game 1, but Julio Rodriguez and Josh Naylor homered off him in the ALCS.
Hernandez has shown a flair for the dramatic and has become a proven postseason performer in the last two seasons with L.A. His odds are much longer than Shohei Ohtani’s (+156), and the Blue Jays will be so careful with Ohtani that I prefer Hernandez’s home run props at their value in what should be a great Game 5 on Wednesday night.
