During the offseason, there was only one team that Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo reportedly would’ve accepted being traded to: the New York Knicks. Ultimately, Bucks general manager Jon Horst’s quick trip to Athens, Greece, proved fruitful, temporarily quelling Antetokounmpo’s discomfort, and he began the season on Milwaukee’s roster alongside two of his brothers, Thanasis and Alex.
Regardless, in light of the summer’s news, all eyes will be on tonight’s game when the two teams meet for the first time this season at Fiserv Forum. The contest will start at 8 p.m. ET. Two Knicks rotation players are questionable, and starting center Mitchell Robinson remains out as he continues to recover from an ankle injury.
Despite the injuries, New York is a 1.5-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook (-125 on the Moneyline), and the point total is set to 228.5. The Bucks, meanwhile, are +105 on the Moneyline. Below, I’ll break down this potential playoff preview and offer a prediction.
New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks preview, prediction
The Knicks’ biggest personnel move over the offseason was hiring a new head coach in Mike Brown, and so far the decision seems to have paid dividends. After Tom Thibodeau utilized some of the shallowest rotations in basketball last season, 11 different players have averaged at least 10 minutes per game so far in 2025-26, and leading minute-getter Mikal Bridges has played a more reasonable 35.7 minutes per game. It’s worked so far: Jalen Brunson is averaging 30.3 points per game and New York is 2-1, picking up an impressive win over a fellow contender in the Cleveland Cavaliers.
Like New York, Milwaukee is 2-1, and Antetokounmpo is arguably having the best season of his career. He’s averaging 36.0 points, 16.0 rebounds, 7.0 assists, and 1.7 steals/blocks through the first week of the season, earning Eastern Conference Player of the Week honors. Offseason acquisition Myles Turner hasn’t yet found his groove, as he’s only averaging 9.3 points and 6.3 rebounds per game on 34-24-50 shooting splits, but point guard Ryan Rollins has acquainted himself nicely with a larger role, ranking second on the team in minutes and nabbing 2.7 steals per game, even if his shot, like Turner’s, isn’t falling.
Knicks at Bucks pick, best bet
In general this season, but Bucks will only go as far as Antetokounmpo can take them. So far, he’s led the team in points, rebounds, and assists in each of the three games, and he actually leads the league in total rebounding percentage so far while ranking eighth in assist percentage and third in usage rate. He drives 16.7 times per game, the eighth-most of any player in the league, and among the 49 players who have recorded at least 10 drives per game, he has been the 10th-most efficient. As a result of the pressure he puts on the defense, Milwaukee ranks third in effective field goal percentage and 11th in points in the paint.
The Bucks’ ultra-efficient offense could prove a challenge for a Knicks defense that has ranked as the league’s fifth-best unit so far this season. It’s unclear how sustainable that is — New York finished just 13th in that category last season and is led by two offense-oriented players in Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns — but as long as OG Anunoby and Bridges lock in, the Knicks have enough talent on the wings to maintain a top-10 defense for the whole season. Anunoby was one of the league’s best defenders against Antetokounmpo last season, holding him to just 21 points on eight-for-23 shooting in the 86.4 partial possessions he guarded him for. He’ll need to lock in defensively while providing more on offense than the inefficient 14 points he offered in New York’s 115-107 loss to the Miami Heat on Sunday.
If Anunoby and Bridges can approximate what Kawhi Leonard and Pascal Siakam were able to do to slow down Antetokounmpo in the 2019 Eastern Conference Finals, the question becomes whether Milwaukee has enough else in its supporting cast. A.J. Green has been excellent, draining 58.8% of his three-point tries so far, but the Bucks’ second-leading scorer, Cole Anthony, has been dealing with an illness, and former Sixth Man of the Year finalist Bobby Portis has taken a step back offensively. In each of the past two seasons, the Knicks have allowed opponents to shoot a high percentage from deep, which places the onus on Green, Gary Trent Jr., and Turner to hit their shots. So far this season, Trent hasn’t: he’s shooting just 34.5% from deep, 4.5 percentage points worse than his career average.
Perhaps going against a familiar opponent in New York is what Turner needs to jump-start his Milwaukee career. In last season’s Eastern Conference Finals, he averaged 13.0 points per game on fairly efficient shooting with the Indiana Pacers, and a season before that, he averaged 16.1 points per game on 48.3% accuracy from deep. In last season’s playoff run, he had some success against Towns on both ends of the floor, going 11-for-13 from two-point range during the ECF and forcing Towns to commit eight turnovers while dishing out only six assists. But this supporting cast is clearly worse than what he had in Indiana, and this New York team is probably better. In its only loss, non-Brunson Knicks shot 33.3% from the field and 23.0% from deep. On a better shooting night, New York is the best team in the East.
