Just 17 hours after the conclusion of last night’s epic 18-inning World Series Game 3 marathon, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Toronto Blue Jays will run it back tonight for a pivotal Game 4 that will be critical especially for the Blue Jays’ chances of sending the Fall Classic back to Canadian soil for Games 6 and 7 on Friday and Saturday.
Given the track record of teams who go up 3-1, Los Angeles can essentially clinch its second straight title tonight, and it has just the man on the mound to do so: Shohei Ohtani ($17,400 CP), who will also hit but won’t accrue any fantasy points as a hitter. Toronto will counter with a former Cy Young Award winner, trade deadline acquisition Shane Bieber ($16,500 CP).
For the pivotal contest, DraftKings is offering a Showdown contest featuring $125,000 in prizes. If I were entering the contest, here’s how I’d build out my lineup, with two potential Captain Picks, two FLEX options, and one fade. Let’s dive in:
Set your DraftKings MLB DFS lineups here: MLB Showdown $125K Relay Throw [$25K to 1st] (TOR @ LAD)
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Game 4 Showdown
Captain’s Picks
Shohei Ohtani ($17,400 CP) – Sometimes the simplest solution is the best solution. Of the Dodgers’ four aces, Ohtani is arguably the best. He’s averaging 31.0 FPTS per game in his two postseason starts so far, completing 12 innings and conceding just five hits and three runs while walking four and striking out 19. Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto have great strikeout stuff, but Ohtani has elite strikeout stuff: of all pitchers with at least 100 career starts, his 11.41 K/9 is the best average in MLB history, 0.01 ahead of second-place Glasnow and 0.22 ahead of third-place Snell. His realistic floor is probably eight strikeouts, even though the Blue Jays have the best bat-to-ball skills in the majors.
Plus, while he hasn’t yet completed the seventh inning this season, Dave Roberts is going to have no choice but to keep him in the game after using every single one of his relievers yesterday. Jack Dreyer, Blake Treinen, Anthony Banda, and Clayton Kershaw should all be available to pitch tonight because none of them threw more than 15 pitches, but it’s not like Los Angeles is teeming with options, and Ohtani pitching the seventh would allow one of Dreyer, Treinen, and Banda to be saved for Game 5. He isn’t expected to pitch again this World Series, with Snell, Yamamoto, and Glasnow lined up for Games 5, 6, and 7.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($14,400 CP) – I’m bypassing Bieber and instead showing love to Toronto’s best hitter, who’s in the middle of a historic postseason run. So far these playoffs, Guerrero has averaged 13.7 FPTS per game and slashed an unbelievable .414/.493/.776, good for the 14th-best OPS in a single playoff run of at least 25 plate appearances since 2000. He hasn’t quite been as dominant this series, but he’s still recorded double-digit FPTS twice, which is pretty solid production overall. Ohtani’s brilliant numbers largely hinge on his ability to generate whiffs, and Guerrero just doesn’t whiff very frequently.
Plus, Ohtani isn’t well-suited to take advantage of one of his few weaknesses. Guerrero only ranks outside the league’s top tertile in his ability to find the launch-angle sweet spot, and Ohtani’s only weakness is forcing ground balls at a below-average rate. Plus, Ohtani tends to use just two pitches against right-handed hitters — a four-seam fastball and a sweeper — and Guerrero tended to get the ball in the air more frequently against sweepers while posting a .414 expected wOBA against right-handed four-seamers. He did whiff at the highest rate against sweepers, but just like he did against every pitch, he tended to hit it hard when he made contact.
FLEX Plays
Alejandro Kirk ($6,600) – There’s something to be said about riding with the hot hand. Kirk went deep in Game 1 as part of the Blue Jays’ incredible nine-run sixth inning in a three-hit performance overall, and after a quiet Game 2 against Yamamoto, he hit a three-run shot last night to give Toronto a lead and effectively chase Tyler Glasnow from the game. Though the 26-year-old is predominantly known for his defense, he has displayed an impressive combination of contact and power this season, posting an 83rd percentile whiff rate and a 91st percentile hard hit rate. He also tends to hit it a lot to the opposite field, where the Dodgers’ weakest defender, Teoscar Hernández ($7,600) plays.
Will Smith ($6,400) – Perhaps picking both catchers one game after they each caught 18 innings is a risk, but Smith has also been hot this series, recording at least seven FPTS in each game, including 21 in Game 2 after he went deep to give Los Angeles the lead in the seventh inning. Last night wasn’t the greatest game for him — he went just one-for-six and struck out four times — but he should have a chance to bounce back against Bieber, whose average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard hit rate all would’ve ranked in the league’s bottom decile if he’d pitched enough innings to qualify. Bieber predominantly threw either a four-seam fastball or a slider against right-handed hitters this season, and Smith posted a .565 slugging percentage against each pitch.
Fades
Mookie Betts ($8,600) – Betts should have plenty of opportunities to drive runners in hitting behind Ohtani, who the Blue Jays are likely to walk a lot, but he just hasn’t had it this series, going just one-for-eight last night (five FPTS). In fact, he’s only recorded double-digit FPTS twice these playoffs, slashing just .250/.344/.357 overall, and all the progress that he seemed to make with his swing over the last two months of the regular season haven’t paid off so far in the playoffs. Bieber is most exploitable by power hitters, and at this point in his career, Betts — who posted just 10th percentile bat speed this season — is no longer that. He makes contact at an elite rate, but Toronto has an elite defense. He’s also posted a 27.1% whiff rate against right-handed sliders, his highest among the five pitches he saw at least 100 times from righties.
The Outcome
It’ll be a difficult game to predict because both teams are likely very exhausted after last night’s marathon. The last time the Dodgers won an 18-inning World Series game, they lost the following night to the Boston Red Sox after their bullpen allowed eight runs in the final three innings. However, this Los Angeles team is probably better than that 2018 squad, and the Blue Jays aren’t as good as the Red Sox, who counted an MVP Betts among their ranks.
I expect a pretty high-scoring affair, even if Ohtani and Bieber can record several clean innings each, since the bullpens are so exhausted. I also expect the Dodgers to ultimately prevail, in part because of their dominance at home throughout the season and in part because Toronto has to be demoralized after losing such a crushing affair. Los Angeles seems destined to become the first repeat World Series champion since the 1998-2000 New York Yankees, and it’ll take a critical step towards that goal tonight.
