The Heat are hosting the Hornets on Tuesday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Miami is favored by 5.5 points and this game carries a total of 240.5 points.
Below, I break down this matchup and provide a pick for the game.
Heat vs. Hornets preview, prediction
The Heat and Hornets have been very comparable this season. Both clubs are 2-1 and Charlotte and Miami rank second and third in net rating, respectively. Both teams rank inside the top-10 in offensive and defensive rating, and both squads are top-five teams in pace, which is a big change for the Heat, as they ranked 28th in pace a year ago.
With Tyler Herro (ankle) yet to play this season, Norman Powell has looked like a great fit for Miami, after the club traded for the veteran from the Clippers this offseason. Powell is leading the Heat with 24 PPG while shooting 47.7% from the field. Bam Adebayo has also been very reliable, averaging a double-double of 19.3 points and 10.0 rebounds, and Jaime Jaquez Jr. has been excellent as the Heat’s sixth man, averaging 15.7 points, 7.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game off the bench. However, Andrew Wiggins has surprisingly struggled with Herro sidelined, averaging just 12.3 PPG after averaging 19 PPG last season.
Unfortunately for Miami, Powell was downgraded to questionable this morning with a groin injury and being a late addition to the injury report is never a good sign. If the pure scorer sits, Adebayo, Jaquez and Wiggins will all need to elevate their game, especially on the offensive end. While all three of these players are capable of providing more offense, the Heat taking a step backwards offensively will likely be inevitable if Powell is out.
The Hornets also have some notable injuries, as Brandon Miller (shoulder) will miss his second game in a row. While the third-year wing is a promising talent, Miller has struggled mightily on defense this season and him being sidelined isn’t a cause for concern for Charlotte. While a limited sample, the Hornets’ defensive rating has been a whopping 20 points better with Miller off the court this season. Charlotte’s offense has been slightly worse sans Miller, but overall, the team owns a strong 16.1 net rating with the 22-year-old off the floor this season.
After missing the end of last season due to multiple injuries, LaMelo Ball has been brilliant this season, averaging 28.3 points, 9.7 assists and 8.3 rebounds per game. Ball went nuts for a 38-point, 13-rebound and 13-assist triple-double vs. the Wizards with Miller missing his first game of the season this past Sunday, which resulted in a 26-point win for the Hornets.
Ball should put up another insane stat line tonight, with the Heat and Hornets both ranking inside the top-five in pace and this game carrying a huge 240.5-point total on DraftKings Sportsbook, which is the largest total of the five NBA games on the schedule Tuesday. Miles Bridges and Collin Sexton will also see more usage with Miller sidelined, and if these two can rise to the occasion, Charlotte should make this a nail-biter in Miami.
Heat vs. Hornets pick, best bet
While handicapping this game is difficult with Powell’s status still to be determined, it’s hard to pick against the Heat on their home floor and they likely will walk away with a win Tuesday. That being said, this should be a very tight spread given how comparable these teams have been this season and this 5.5-point spread is a bit aggressive.
This game should be close from start-to-finish and the Hornets +5.5 is a strong wager that should be attacked quickly, as this line is likely to keep moving Charlotte’s way before tip-off with Powell now questionable.
