Texas State is hosting James Madison on Tuesday night of Week 10. The game will take place at 8:00 p.m. ET in San Marcos, Texas.
The Dukes are seven-point road favorites in this game on DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total set at 55.5 points. This is a preview, prediction and pick for this James Madison at Texas State Sun Belt conference matchup.
James Madison at Texas State prediction, preview
James Madison Preview
The Dukes are possibly in the driver’s seat for the Group of Five College Football Playoff bid. The American Conference champion looked like the easy pick for that spot, but after Memphis lost to UAB, then beat South Florida the following week, that conference has turned into chaos. In a down season for Boise State out west, that opens the door for JMU to make its first College Football Playoff appearance. The Dukes are undefeated in conference play, with their lone loss this season coming against Louisville, a game in which they were tied entering the fourth quarter. JMU is winning football games the old-fashioned way, running the ball and playing defense. JMU ranks second in the nation in defensive success rate and 37th in offensive rushing success rate. It is not the flashiest team in the country, but those numbers make it very hard to beat.
Texas State Preview
It has been a disappointing season for Texas State. Coach G.J. Kinne came to San Marcos in 2023 and immediately turned this team into a winner. In 11 seasons at the FBS level, Texas State had never made a bowl game before Kinne arrived. In each of his first two seasons, he went 8-5 and won a bowl game. Both seasons, Texas State was the runner-up in the Sun Belt West, narrowly missing out on a conference title game appearance. This season, it hoped to take that next step forward, finally. Instead, it has been a tough 3-4 start to the season with no wins yet in Sun Belt play. A conference title game appearance is likely out of the picture, but this game is a chance for Texas State to get a signature win over the best team in the Sun Belt.
James Madison at Texas State pick, best bet
My best bet for this game is for Texas State to cover the spread as seven-point underdogs. It has been a rough go of it in conference play for G.J. Kinne’s group. However, there is more talent on this team than the results are showing. The Texas State offense is a great unit. It ranks 28th in the country in offensive EPA/play. Brad Jackson has had a strong season as a freshman quarterback. He is coming off a career-best 444-yard passing day against Marshall last time out. The defense has been the major issue for Texas State. However, JMU does not have the explosive offense to take advantage of those weaknesses of the Bobcats. Texas State should be able to score enough to keep this game tight, even against a tough JMU defense. The bye week should have done wonders for Texas State to get healthy and fix some of the defensive issues ahead of this big matchup.
