After an exciting 34-game regular season, Major League Soccer is back underway for the MLS Cup Playoffs, with the top eight teams in each conference battling it out in best-of-three playoff series, with the higher seed owning home field advantage for two of the three games.
On paper, the most even matchup in the entire playoff bracket is tonight’s 4-5 matchup between Charlotte FC and New York City FC, which were separated by just three points in the table. Game 1 of that series will start at 6:45 p.m. ET at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.
NYCFC is a +140 favorite to win in regular time and -130 to claim a series lead at DraftKings Sportsbook, while the Crown is +170 to win in regular time and +100 when penalties are considered.
Charlotte FC vs. New York City FC prediction, pick
Charlotte was one of the league’s hottest teams towards the end of the season, winning seven and losing two after the Leagues Cup break and keeping a clean sheet in all but one of its victories. The Crown had a fairly well-balanced attack, as three different players — Ivorian Premier League veteran Wilfried Zaha, Spanish attacking midfielder Pep Biel, and young Israeli forward Idan Markovich — scored at least 10 goals, and Biel also contributed 11 assists. Plus, USMNT defender Tim Ream provides veteran leadership in the back, and behind him, Kristijan Kahlina saved 78.6% of his possible save opportunities, recording the second most saves at the second-best percentage in the MLS. Zaha also drew the most fouls. Allowing the league’s sixth-most shots on target per 90 minutes isn’t ideal, and neither is attempting the ninth-fewest, but clinical finishing combined with clinical goalkeeping is generally a solid combination.
The Pigeons aren’t necessarily in terrible form, either — they’ve gone 6-0-4 since their Leagues Cup campaign ended — but they’ve lost three of their last four games, including a 4-0 thrashing at the hands of Inter Miami. New York City has had one of the league’s most clinical strikers, Costa Rican Alonso Martínez, who tied for eighth with 17 goals this season, but Hannes Wolf was the only other player to reach the double-digit goal threshold and no player recorded more than Maximiliano Moralez’s seven assists. In between the sticks, goalkeeper Matt Freese saved only 70.8% of the shots he faced, five percentage points worse than his performance last season, but his effort still represented the 10th-best post-shot expected goal differential per 90 minutes in the league. All in all, the Pigeons allowed the third-fewest expected goals in the Eastern Conference, as the few shots Freese faced were high-quality ones.
Home field advantage will matter in this series, and New York City’s consecutive losses to end the season could well determine the outcome. Charlotte, while vulnerable on the road, was rock-solid at home, finishing a league-best 13-1-3 on friendly turf, and while the Pigeons had a solid 6-5-6 record away from Yankee Stadium, the Crown managed a 2-0 win the last time they faced off in Charlotte. In that game, NYCFC actually managed to create the better chances but only put three of its 16 shots on target, and Freese saved only one of the three shots on target he faced. By shot on target percentage, it was the Pigeons’ eighth-worst performance of the season. It also wasn’t a completely anomalous performance; the Crown allowed the 12th-lowest shot on target percentage in the league, one spot behind New York City.
The Pigeons have a health advantage after Biel suffered a knee injury earlier this month, but Charlotte has hardly missed him, thanks to an incredible Zaha scoring run that has seen him score with each of his last three shots on target. Markovich recently netted a hat trick against Inter Miami, and he also scored the last time these two teams played in North Carolina. In that match, New York City allowed the Crown to attempt twice as many crosses as it had, and overall, it has conceded the second-most corners in the league. The Pigeons can’t afford to give many high-quality chances to a team featuring attackers as in-form as Markovich and Zaha.
