After a slow start to the season, the Kansas City Chiefs are on a roll. They lost each of their first two games of the season but have gone 4-1 ever since, posting an impressive 30-17 win over a possible Super Bowl contender in the Detroit Lions and following it up by taking care of business against the woeful Las Vegas Raiders.
Most critically, Kansas City is now fully healthy after missing top wideout Xavier Worthy for, effectively, the first three weeks of the season and Rashee Rice for six. Both receivers’ returns threaten to cut into the production of Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, who has bounced back from a couple of poor seasons with a team-leading 32 catches.
The Chiefs will field an almost fully fit squad for tonight’s Monday Night Football game against the Washington Commanders, which is set to begin at 8:15 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium.
Kansas City is a 10.5-point favorite for tonight’s clash at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the point total set to 47.5. Below, I’ve laid out my favorite Brown-centered prop bets for those who want to get in on the action.
Best Hollywood Brown Prop Bets on DraftKings Sportsbook
Marquise Brown 25+ Receiving Yards (-103)
Brown recorded 25 or more receiving yards in each of his first six games of the season…then, Rice returned and Brown managed just two catches for 14 yards and a score in the demolition of Las Vegas. Between Tyquan Thornton’s breakout and continued excellence from Rice, Worthy, and Travis Kelce, the Chiefs’ offense has arguably never had more mouths to feed. The fact that Brown played just 33.3% of the team’s offensive snaps is cause for concern, but much of that had to do with the lopsided score line: he played as many snaps as Thornton, two fewer than JuJu Smith-Schuster, and six fewer than Rice.
In the win over the Raiders, Brown received a season-low four targets. However, he’d also had just four targets the prior week against Detroit, but he caught all of them for 45 yards, so he can get to 25 yards even when he isn’t the focal point of the offense. He’s been extremely efficient with his opportunities this season, averaging a career-high success rate, catch percentage, and fewest catches per broken tackle. Like all of Kansas City’s receivers, he has experience lining up in both the slot and outside, which should allow him to stay on the field in all different types of personnel.
Plus, the Commanders’ defense hasn’t been great this season. They rank 13th-to-last by expected points added on passing plays, and overall, they’ve allowed the 12th-most receiving yards to wide receivers (the third-most among teams who have yet to play their eighth game), as well as the third-most net yards per attempt overall. By Pro Football Focus’ grades, Washington ranks fourth-to-last in coverage and 13th-to-last in tackling, which should help Brown, who’s generated above-average separation but has gained 0.7 yards fewer after the catch than expected, per the NFL’s Next Gen Stats.
Marquise Brown Longest Reception – O14.5 Yards (-120)
In order for Brown’s longest reception to hit the over, he basically just has to have an average reception by the Commanders’ standards. This season, they’ve allowed a league-high 13 yards per reception, 1.1 worse than even the Dallas Cowboys, as well as a league-high eight 40-plus-yard catches and 22 20-plus-yard catches. If that YPC figure holds, it’d be the worst that any team has posted since the 2019 Cincinnati Bengals, and that defense allowed both a 49-yard catch and a 20-yard touchdown to a then-rookie Brown.
Brown is unlikely to ever be the most dangerous target on the field, so Washington’s one solid cornerback — Trey Amos — probably won’t play too many snaps against him. The Commanders’ coverage ability drops off rapidly after Amos, with both Mike Sainristil and Marshon Lattimore experiencing underwhelming seasons. Sainristil has allowed nearly one more yard after the catch per reception than he did last season, and Lattimore has been challenged deep a lot, averaging 14.3 yards per completion. Brown ranks third in average depth of target among the nine Chiefs with 10 or more targets this season.
