The NFL Week 8 slate is off to the races with plenty of intriguing matchups. Kicking off at 4:00 p.m. ET, the New Orleans Saints will host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. These pair of NFC South opponents hold very different outlooks on the season, but anything can happen in a divisional matchup and on any given Sunday.
Tampa Bay is off to a 5-2 start to the season and sits atop the divisional standings. It is battling some major injuries at the wide receiver position but Baker Mayfield has been up for the challenge and has played high-level football. New Orleans is 1-6 on the year, but it has had some flashes and looked more competent than many expected coming into the season.
Looking at the odds for this week’s matchup, the Buccaneers enter as 4.5-point road favorites and hold -218 odds of winning on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Saints hold +180 odds of winning outright with the game total set at 46.5 points.
There are plenty of ways to get involved in the action beyond just backing a side. This article will look at my three favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for the Week 8 Buccaneers at Saints matchup.
Buccaneers at Saints Best Prop Bets
Spencer Rattler Over 213.5 Passing Yards (-113)
After entering the season in the conversation as the worst starting quarterback in the NFL, Spencer Rattler has had some nice flashes over his opening seven games. The South Carolina product is posting a 67.7% completion percentage and has thrown for 1,450 yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions on the season. Rattler is averaging 207.1 passing yards per game and has posted passing totals of 214, 207, 218, 126, 225, 227 and 233 yards. While the career 1-12 record as a starter isn’t inspiring, he has gone over 213.5 passing yards in five of the seven games this year.
Tampa Bay has a high-powered offense, but its defense has been vulnerable this season. It ranks 22nd in points allowed and 17th in yards given up overall. Looking at just their pass defense, the Buccaneers are 21st in passing yards allowed, 21st in net yards per pass attempt and 14th in passing touchdowns conceded. They are also 23rd in opponent dropback EPA, 25th in opponent dropback success rate and allow 7.0 yards per pass attempt. Tampa Bay allowed 241 passing yards to Jared Goff last week, 347 yards through the air to Mac Jones the game before, and 341 passing yards to Sam Darnold the week before that. Opponents have thrown for over 213.5 passing yards in four of the seven games overall.
The Saints enter this matchup as underdogs and could be forced to play from behind early. The Saints have better wide receivers than is sometimes acknowledged with Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed headlining the production. Expect Rattler to be ready to air it out plenty, even if it is in a losing effort. The 25-year-old has taken some strides this season and is playing with confidence. Look for him to throw for over 213.5 passing yards for the fourth straight week against a vulnerable Buccaneers secondary.
Baker Mayfield Longest Pass Under 37.5 (-110)
Baker Mayfield is off to an incredible start to the season and received some MVP buzz as a result. But there comes a point where the lack of reliable wide receivers will hurt him, and expect this to come into play in the big-play category today. Mike Evans suffered a broken collarbone last week and will be out for an extended period of time and Chris Godwin remains sidelined with his ankle injury.
After Evans’ injury last week, the Buccaneers recorded a season-low 4.7 yards per dropback in the second half. New Orleans does not offer as strong of a defense as Detroit did, but expect Mayfield to need to gradually lead the team down the field rather than seeking out the big play. When Evans is on the field, Mayfield is completing 47% of his throws with 15+ air yards with a 23-to-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Without Evans, this percentage has slipped to 40% with a 7-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio across his time in Tampa Bay.
The 37.5-yard line is a high margin for the longest pass play. Mayfield’s longest pass play has fallen below this number in four of the seven games this year while having better health around him than is the case this week. Expect the Saints to be playing a bend-don’t-break style of defense in which they look to avoid the big plays and for these opportunities to be slim. Count on Mayfield to fail to register a pass play of over 37.5 yards in this divisional matchup for the fifth time this season.
Cade Otton Over 40.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
While Emeka Egbuka will surely be active in the offense, Tampa Bay needs other pass catchers to step up and I am targeting Cade Otton to record over 40.5 receiving yards. Through the opening seven games, Otton has pulled in 22 of his 31 targets for 231 yards. He has posted receiving totals of 0, 25, 0 and 9 across the first four weeks and 81, 51 and 65 in the three games since. Last week, he was targeted a season-high nine times and pulled in seven of those for receptions.
New Orleans allows the eighth-highest EPA against the pass. So far this season against opposing tight ends, it is allowing 5.1 receptions and 50.7 yards per game. Otton has seen his role expand without the top wide receivers in the past and expect the same this week. Last year in a two-game stretch in Weeks 8 and 9 without Evans and Godwin, Otton posted receiving totals of nine receptions for 81 yards and eight receptions for 77 yards with three total scores.
Count on Mayfield looking for his tight end at a high rate and for Otton to be prepared for the opportunities. He averaged 42.7 yards per game last year and will welcome his scaled up role. Look for him to be heavily involved in the offense and tally over 40.5 yards through the air for the fourth straight game.
