The Colts are hosting the Titans on Sunday. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Indianapolis is favored by 14.5 points, and this game carries a total of O/U 47.5 points.
Below, I dive into some of my favorite player props for this matchup.
Colts vs. Titans Best Prop Bets
Tyler Warren O 11.5 First Quarter Receiving Yards (-113)
Warren is having an outstanding rookie season, leading all tight ends in receiving yards (439), and the 23-year-old has been stellar to begin games this season, ranking second in the NFL in first-quarter receiving yards (222), trailing only Amon-Ra St. Brown (248). 51% of Warren’s receiving yards have come in the first quarter, and he has produced at least 29 first-quarter receiving yards in six of his seven games.
Warren is handling a 21.4% target share, but that rate increases to a team-high 27.3% in the first quarter of contests. Getting the ascending tight end going early is clearly a part of the Colts’ game plan every week, and Warren is an elite bet for over 11.5 first-quarter receiving yards against this Titans defense that is giving up the seventh-most yards per pass this season (7.2).
Tyjae Spears O 14.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Spears began this season on IR with an ankle injury, and after being limited in his season debut in Week 5, the veteran has led the Titans’ backfield with a 51.8% snap share over the last two weeks, and he has finished with 19 and 18 receiving yards in these two contests. During this span, Spears has run a route on 45% of his team’s dropbacks, and he has garnered a target on a strong 24% of his routes.
Spears has always been a great receiving threat out of the backfield throughout his career, and rookie quarterback Cameron Ward checking down to Spears often in this matchup vs. the Colts is likely, with Tennessee being a huge 14.5-point road underdog and likely forced to air it out on offense.
Cameron Ward O 20.5 Completions (-107)
The 1-6 Titans throwing the ball at a very high clip is almost inevitable vs. the 6-1 Colts on Sunday, and with the immense volume, Ward has an excellent chance to complete more than 20 passes. With Tennessee trailing in almost every game this season, the Titans rank second in pass rate (68%), and after a rough start to his rookie campaign, Ward has improved recently.
In his last five starts, Ward is averaging 21 completions per game, and he has completed at least 21 passes in all but one of these five games. No team in the NFL is allowing more completions than Indianapolis this season (182), and 20.5 completions is simply too low a line for Ward in this spot.
