Kicking off in the noon window of the Week 9 college football slate, the Purdue Boilermakers will be hosting the Rutgers Scarlet Knights. Neither of these pairs of Big Ten Opponents have started the way they wanted to but they both still hold some semblance of a salvageable season.
These two programs have only faced off twice in their history. Rutgers has come out on top in each of these matchups, which occurred in 2017 and 2020.
Looking at the odds for this year’s matchup, Rutgers enters as narrow 1.5-point road favorites and holds -125 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook of winning outright. Purdue holds +105 odds of pulling off the outright upset, with the game total set at 58.5
This article provides a preview of both teams and offers a pick for the Week 9 matchup.
Rutgers vs. Purdue prediction, preview
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Rutgers enters with a 3-4 record in a season that has been a tale of two halves to this point. They kicked off the season with three consecutive victories over Ohio, Miami (Ohio), and Norfolk State. Since then, the Scarlet Knights have dropped four straight games against Iowa, Minnesota, Washington, and Oregon. The level of competition certainly scaled up, but Rutgers was unable to match this. They are 0-2 when playing on the road and 3-4 against the spread this season.
Athan Kaliakmanis stands in at the quarterback position and will be looking to bounce back from his 79 yards and two interception passing performance against Oregon. This was by far his worst showing of the season. The Minnesota transfer has been solid overall this year, completing 62.4% of his pass attempts for 1,864 yards, 11 touchdowns, and five interceptions. He also has added two scores on the ground. Ian Strong and KJ Duff are Kaliakmanis’ favorite targets. Strong has 37 receptions for 543 yards and two touchdowns while Duff has 36 receptions for 520 yards and four scores. DT Sheffield has also added 29 receptions for 420 yards and three touchdowns of his own. Antwan Raymond is the clear top running back with a Big Ten-leading 120 rush attempts for 615 yards and nine touchdowns while adding 121 yards and a touchdown through the air.
The Scarlet Knights are averaging 32.0 points per game, which ranks 48th among FBS programs, and generating an average of 409.3 total yards of offense. This includes 276.1 yards through the air, 133.1 yards on the ground, and 1.9 touchdowns per game in each category. The previous 56-10 loss to Oregon is the first time they have been held below 19 points and they have scored 28+ in five of their games. Rutgers has had more trouble defensively, giving up an average of 32.0 points per game. They are allowing 437.4 yards of total offense and have only held opponents to below 31 points twice. Rutgers has nine sacks and seven turnovers forced on the season.
Purdue Boilermakers
The Boilermakers enter this matchup with a 2-5 record on the year. Similar to Rutgers, they got the season off with back-to-back wins over Ball State and Southern Illinois. They have now dropped five consecutive games at the hands of USC, Notre Dame, Illinois, Minnesota, and Northwestern. Purdue is 2-2 when playing at home this season and is 2-4-1 against the spread.
Ryan Browne started the season at quarterback, but suffered a shoulder injury last week against Northwestern and is doubtful for this matchup. Malachi Singleton stepped in following his injury and completed 11 of his 20 pass attempts for 187 yards and an interception while adding 20 yards with his legs. He also threw a touchdown against Notre Dame this season while attempting just four passes in the loss. Michael Jackson III leads the team in receiving with 320 yards and a touchdown while Nitro Tuggle has 290 yards and three scores to his name. Devin Mockobee leads the team with 430 rushing yards and four touchdowns while Purdue is dependent on the quarterback making plays with their legs as well.
Purdue is averaging just 22.7 points per game, which ranks 101st out of the 136 qualifying D1 teams. They are generating 393.9 yards of total offense per game. The Boilermakers have not scored more than 34 points in a game all season and are looking to bounce back from being shut out by Northwestern. Defensively, opponents are scoring 27.9 points per game against Purdue which ranks 96th. They are allowing 373.4 total yards of offense including 229.4 yards through the air. Barry Odom’s squad has allowed 17+ points in each of their past six games and given up as many as 56 this season. Purdue has tallied 14 total sacks and forced just four turnovers on the season.
Rutgers vs. Purdue pick, best bet
Neither of these teams is playing good football at the moment and both have failed to scale their games up to better competition. But I am backing Rutgers’ offense to be the difference in this game.
Purdue has lost each of their last 10 games in October and failed to cover the spread in each of their last six home games in the month. While Rutgers is a just a narrow favorite, the favorite has won 20 of Purdue’s last 21 games.
Rutgers has won the first half in six of their last eight games. If Purdue falls behind, I have a difficult time seeing them being able to produce a comeback. The Boilermakers are averaging just 3.3 fourth-quarter points on the season which ranks 110th among D1 teams. These issues will only be compounded with the backup quarterback on the field for Purdue. Expect Athan Kaliakmanis to headline to offensive effort for Rutgers and push the scoring against a porous Purdue defense that cannot match this. Both these teams have flaws, but Purdue’s are more glaring, and I expect their losing streak to extend to six games in this conference matchup.
