Before UFC 321 concludes with a heavyweight clash, it kicks off in the promotion’s lightest division. The opening fight in Abu Dhabi features a women’s strawweight bout between Brazil’s Jaqueline Amorim and Japan’s Mizuki Inoue, known simply as Mizuki. Amorim is hunting for a UFC-leading fifth consecutive finish, and Mizuki aims to impress in her return to the Octagon after two years away.
Amorim enters as an overwhelming favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, holding -425 moneyline odds, while Mizuki is listed as a +330 underdog. The total is set for 2.5 rounds. Here’s my best bet for Saturday’s strawweight showdown.
Jaqueline Amorim to win by Submission (+100)
Amorim (10-1) enters UFC 321 riding the momentum of four straight stoppage victories, tying with light heavyweight Bogdan Guskov and welterweight Sam Patterson for the longest active finishing streak in the promotion. Her last three wins have all come by submission, locking up her latest victory with a second-round rear-naked choke against Polyana Viana on April 26. All ten of the 31-year-old’s victories have come before the judges could get involved, with two by knockout and eight by submission.
Mizuki (15-6) joined the promotion in 2019 after an impressive run in Invicta FC, but has competed just three times under the UFC banner. She’s gone 2-1 with a pair of decision victories, most recently defeating Hannah Goldy back in Sept. 2023. The 32-year-old has nine wins via submission in her career, but hasn’t secured a finish in nearly a decade. An aggressive kickboxer, she lands 4.56 significant strikes per minute — nearly double her opponent’s 2.68 mark. But it’ll likely be a different story against Amorim, who has absorbed just 1.43 significant strikes per minute in UFC strawweight fights, the lowest rate in division history.
Mizuki can hold her own on the feet but becomes vulnerable when a fight hits the canvas — exactly where Amorim thrives. The Brazilian has already showcased a diverse submission arsenal and will be eager to drag her opponent into deep waters.
