Two ACC foes are set to meet this weekend at Heinz Field. Pittsburgh (5-2) has reeled off three straight victories under quarterback Mason Heintschel. Now, the Panthers will attempt to extend their win streak against North Carolina State. Can the Wolfpack and QB CJ Bailey pull off an upset on Saturday?
Below is my prediction and pick for College Football Week 9’s game between the North Carolina State Wolfpack and the Pittsburgh Panthers.
Pittsburgh enters this contest as 6.5-point favorites (-108) over NC State, with the over/under set at 54.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Panthers are favored at -245 on the moneyline.
NC State vs. Pittsburgh prediction, preview
A previously sputtering Pitt offense has been buoyed by Heintschel’s midseason promotion. Since taking over as QB1 in Week 6, the freshman has surpassed all expectations. In the three games since, the Panthers have scored a combined 112 points. That includes an unexpected 34-31 upset on the road against Florida State. Heintschel has thrown for 784 yards, ran for 115 more, and accumulated seven total touchdowns during that time.
In fairness to the rest of Pittsburgh’s offense, this isn’t a one-man show. Desmond Reid is a game-changer when healthy, offering solid production on the ground and as a receiver. Fellow running back Ja’Kyrian Turner has churned out three touchdowns over his last three appearances. At wideout, Raphael Williams (426 rec. yards) and Kenny Johnson (390 rec. yards) have both been reliable. This weekend, the Panthers will take on a lackluster NC State defense. The Wolfpack have surrendered the ACC’s fourth-most passing yards (257.3) and sixth-most rushing yards (133.4) per game.
That’s not to say Saturday’s contest will be a cakewalk for Pitt. North Carolina State’s offense is scoring 30.0 points per game, led by the dynamic Bailey. This season, the quarterback has gained 1,846 passing yards and 14 total touchdowns. Expect plenty of running back Daylan Smothers in this one as well. The ACC’s leading rusher has gained 739 yards and five touchdowns on the ground this season. However, the Panthers have allowed a conference-best 82.4 rushing yards to their opponents.
As good as Smothers has been, winning this matchup will likely come down to Bailey’s arm. That’s a risky proposition, as the sophomore has already thrown seven interceptions. Pittsburgh has picked off opposing quarterbacks five times over its last four outings. Still, the Panthers have also given up 12 passing touchdowns. Success in the red zone will be vital for NC State’s chances at an upset.
NC State vs. Pittsburgh pick, best bet
It sounds like a cliché, but a quarterback change can motivate an entire team. The Panthers looked lost on offense at the start of this month. Now? The sky is the limit for this group as they attempt to reach the ACC championship game.
In comparison, it’s been an up-and-down campaign for the Wolfpack. Their signature win, a 35-31 triumph over #16 Virginia on September 6th, was impressive. However, the program has been outmatched against most Power 4 competition since that win. On the road, against a red-hot quarterback, it’s difficult to trust NC State this weekend. The Panthers appear poised to continue their win streak on Saturday.
