The Iowa Hawkeyes will host the Minnesota Golden Gophers as part of the Week 9 college football slate. This Big Ten matchup will be kicking off at 3:30 p.m. ET. during the Saturday schedule.
These programs have faced off 118 times in their history. Minnesota has gotten the upper hand in 63 of these matchups with two ties occurring. However, Iowa has had the advantage in recent history, winning nine of the last 10 matchups.
Looking at the odds for this year’s conference game, Iowa enters as 9.5-point road favorites and holds -345 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook of winning outright. Minnesota holds +275 odds of pulling off the outright upset, with the game total set at 39.5.
This article provides a preview of both teams and offers a pick for the Week 9 matchup.
Minnesota vs. Iowa prediction, preview
Minnesota Golden Gophers
Minnesota is off to a 5-2 start to the season with victories over Buffalo, Northwestern State, Rutgers, Purdue, and Nebraska. They have suffered losses at the hands of California and Ohio State. The Golden Gophers are 3-1 in conference play, 0-2 when playing on the road, and 2-4-1 against the spread.
Drake Lindsey stands in at quarterback and is off to a fine start to the year. The first-year starter has completed 62.0% of his pass attempts for 1,437 yards, 10 touchdowns and three interceptions, and has added two touchdowns on the ground. Lemeke Brockington, Jalen Smith, and Javon Tracy headline the wide receiver production. Each has tallied 260+ yards through the air and at least two touchdowns. Darius Taylor leads the team with 353 rushing yards and a touchdown while Fame Ijeboi adds 259 yards and two total touchdowns.
The Golden Gophers are averaging 26.9 points per game, which ranks 79th of the 136 FBS teams, and are producing 340.6 total yards of offense. They have had more success defensively, limiting opponents to just 19.0 points per game. This ranks 29th among D1 programs and they are allowing just 294.7 yards of total offense. Only Ohio State has scored more than 28 points in a game against them. Minnesota also has 23 sacks and forced 10 interceptions.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa also enters with a 5-2 record with its pair of losses coming at the hands of Iowa State and Indiana. The Hawkeyes have defeated Albany, Massachusetts, Rutgers, Wisconsin, and Penn State. This program sits 3-1 in conference play, 3-1 when playing at home, and 4-2-1 against the spread.
As expected with Iowa offenses, they lean heavily on their rushing attack. The Hawkeyes are averaging 192.7 rushing yards per game as a team compared to 131.4 passing yards. Kamari Moulton has a team-high 360 rushing yards and two touchdowns while Xavier Williams has 245 rushing yards and three touchdowns at the running back position. Mark Gronowski stands in at quarterback. He has completed 65.1% of his pass attempts for 811 yards, three touchdowns and four interceptions while adding 289 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. Sam Phillips leads the team in receiving with 193 yards while Jacob Gill is the lone other pass catcher with over 100 yards (125 on the season). Seth Anderson leads the team in receiving touchdowns with two, despite only having nine receptions on the season.
The Hawkeyes are averaging 29.9 points per game, which ranks 59th among FBS teams, and are producing 324.1 yards of total offense. Defensively, opponents have produced 14.9 points per game, which is the ninth-best rate in the country, and just 249.4 total yards of offense. They held Wisconsin completely scoreless and limited Indiana to 20 points in recent matchups. Iowa has also tallied 13 sacks and forced eight turnovers on the season.
Minnesota vs. Iowa pick, best bet
How the Minnesota defense is able to survive the Iowa rushing attack will just about make or break this game. My lean is toward Minnesota being able to remain within the 9.5-point spread, but I am backing the under of 39.5 in this matchup.
This is a low total but for good reason. Both of these teams rank in the top 30 of scoring defenses on the season. The total has also gone under in 11 of the 16 last games played between these two opponents, as well as the under which cashed in six of Minnesota’s last nine games overall. The Hawkeyes will be completely content keeping the ball on the ground and controlling the pace of play, while Minnesota has not shown the ability to break the game open offensively. To this point, Minnesota has only tallied more than 28 points against Northwestern State, an FCS program. They only tallied three points against Ohio State, and while Iowa is not quite that level of team, the Hawkeyes will still be the second-best defense they have faced.
If there was a market for punts, I very well may be writing up that angle. But expect both these offenses to struggle throughout and for the defenses to be the storyline. The first team to reach 20 points will likely have a clear path to a victory, so I am backing the game total to finish below the 39.5-point line in this Big Ten matchup.
