After a 14-month hiatus, Tom Aspinall makes his long-awaited return to the Octagon against Ciryl Gane in the Main Event of UFC 321. After one successful title defense as Interim Champion, Aspinall is back as Undisputed Champion. UFC 321 takes place on Saturday, October 25, at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
Here are my three best bets for Saturday’s UFC 321 PPV.
Tom Aspinall to Win in Rounds 1-2 (-150)
Although Aspinall is making his first defense of the Undisputed Heavyweight title, he has already won two Interim title fights. After Aspinall beat Curtis Blaydes at UFC 304 in July 2024, he was expected to face Jon Jones for the Undisputed title. But Jones waited months to make a decision, then retired and vacated the title. Besides Aspinall’s recent layoff, his UFC career has gone nearly perfectly so far, going 8-1 with eight finishes.
Aspinall doesn’t just finish his opponents but does so incredibly quickly. In his career, 14 of Aspinall’s 15 wins have come in the first round, with the other one occurring in the second. Gane is an outstanding striker, but he hasn’t been nearly as dominant as Aspinall. In this matchup, Aspinall averages 2.81 more significant strikes per minute while being six percent more accurate.
Pairing Aspinall’s earth-shattering power with his elite ground game makes for Gane’s most challenging test of his career. Before Aspinall, the two previous UFC Heavyweight Undisputed Champions, Jon Jones and Francis Ngannou, also fought Gane. Before their fights, Jones was -170 and Ngannou was +120 against Gane. On DraftKings Sportsbook, Aspinall is a -345 favorite against Gane, who is a +275 underdog. Even though Gane is talented, it would be surprising if he could handle Aspinall’s versatile skill set. This is why I’m taking Aspinall at -150 to win in Rounds 1-2.
Jailton Almeida to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission (-110)
Like Aspinall, every time Jailton Almeida fights, he isn’t just looking for a win but one by finish. Almeida has won 21 of his 22 fights by submission or knockout. He is 8-1 in the UFC with seven finishes and has won two straight fights against Alexandr Romanov and Serghei Spivac. Now he faces Alexander Volkov, who lost his last fight to Gane via split decision.
On DraftKings Sportsbook, Almeida is a -185 favorite as Volkov is a +154 underdog in this fight. Volkov excels on the feet, but the most significant advantage in this contest lies with Almeida, whose elite ability on the ground sets him apart. Almeida lands nearly six more takedowns per 15 minutes than Volkov does while completing his attempts at a 60 percent rate. The best value play for this fight is getting Almeida to win by KO/TKO/DQ or submission at -110.
Aleksandar Rakic Moneyline (-118)
Aleksandar Rakic is taking on Azamat Murzakanov in a three-round Light Heavyweight bout to open the UFC 321 Main Card. Rakic has lost three consecutive fights for the first time in his career and hasn’t won a fight since March 2021. But Rakic has faced tough competition, including Jan Blachowicz, Jiri Prochazka, and Magomed Ankalaev, three former UFC Champions.
Now Rakic is up against Murzakanov, who is 15-0 in his career and has won his first five fights in the UFC. Murzakanov has shown significant potential recently, but he isn’t as accomplished as Rakic’s previous three opponents. In this fight, Rakic has a massive reach (78″ vs. 71.5″) and height (6’4″ vs. 5’10”) advantage, which I believe will be hard for Murzakanov to overcome. You can get Rakic at -118 to beat Murzakanov at UFC 321.
