I’ve been fading BYU week after week, and obviously, it hasn’t been going great. But hey, let’s do it again … the Cyclones might just be my favorite play of the week.
Without even getting into the matchup between BYU and ISU on the field, the spot alone sets up as about as strong of a betting angle towards Iowa State as you could imagine. On the flip side, it’s about as ideal of a spot to fade BYU as you could imagine.
The Cyclones are off consecutive one-score losses, both coming on the road to Cincinnati and Colorado. Now they are set to return home to face a ranked and undefeated, with two full weeks to prepare, following their bye week. Meanwhile, BYU is fortunate to have its undefeated record, and are off a pair of pretty emotional victories. The Cougars squeaked out a road win at Arizona, in which they trailed by double digits late, and then won a three-point game in the Holy War against their in-state rival, the Utes.
At this point in the season, Iowa State is probably a bit better than its record says, and BYU simply can’t be as good as its perfect record indicates. There’s value on the Cyclones from that perspective alone, but when you combine how perfect of a spot this game sets up to be, Iowa State is in tremendous position to get back on track here.
The last time the Cyclones played a home game was in late September, and they stomped a common opponent in Arizona (a team BYU probably should’ve lost to) by 25 points. I’ll trust a highly motivated and well-prepared Iowa State squad to catch BYU at the perfect time.
CFB Pick: Iowa State Moneyline (-142)
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